Why is the US continuously threatening India? CENJOWS 10 Jun 19
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=177
Why is the US continuously threatening India? CENJOWS 10 Jun 19
The US, in every policy document and statements by its top bureaucrats has mentioned that India is an important strategic partner, with whom it seeks to enhance its relationship. The signing of LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) and COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) pushed India clearly into the US camp. Its participation in the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), joint exercises with Japan and the US and the 2 plus 2 strategic dialogue has announced the proximity between the two countries.
India, like every nation across the globe, has its own peculiar security concerns, which implies balancing its relations between the US, Iran, China and Russia. With two hostile neighbours, it must ensure that its own interests are protected. Hence, it maintains close ties with Russia and Iran. Diplomatic ties in the present environment cannot be stand-alone but must be balanced by economic cooperation. Economic cooperation also includes procurement of products from concerned countries, whether it be oil, manufactured goods or military hardware.
This is the same policy as adopted by Trump, when he deals with allies who have a favourable trade balance vis-à-vis the US. It is one of the reasons why India purchases US oil, despite it being costlier.
The US on the other hand, considering its role as the policeman of the globe has its own national interests. It takes most of its decisions based them or those of its close allies. However, it expects other nations, whom it considers its partners, to close their own options and follow US policies. Its actions against Iran, apart from its own national interests, is also pushed by the interests of Israel and Saudi Arabia, both whom its supports. Similarly, its actions against Russia are pushed by its and NATO’s concerns.
India as a growing economic power is also seeking to develop its military capabilities with two clear intentions. The first is to enhance its conventional military balance of power over Pakistan and the second is to counter a strong and belligerent China. With a low military technological base, it is presently compelled to procure most of its capabilities from other nations. With ‘Make in India’ gaining ground, some future defence deals would witness manufacture in India.
India is presently the world’s second largest arms importer, with Saudi Arabia being the leader. India’s share in 2018 was 9.5% of the worlds arms sales. Between 2014-2018, the Russian share of the Indian arms market dropped from 76% to 58%. It may now increase as major equipment purchases are on the cards. The US provides a large chunk of other imports, alongside Israel and France.
Recent warnings of sanctions from the US are aimed at India’s procurement of oil from Iran and weapons from Russia, mainly the S-400 air defence systems. The US walked out of the Iran nuclear deal last year and its announcement of sanctions against any nation which procures oil from Iran kicked in from 01 May this year. With Russia, the US has imposed CAATSA (Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act), due to its interference in US elections and annexation of Crimea. In both cases, India has maintained neutrality as it has historical relations with both countries.
India has been forced to reduce its oil procurements from Iran to negligible levels. Its development of Chabahar port is presently not being questioned. All attempts by India to explain the importance of Iranian relations and its oil on the Indian economy have fallen on deaf ears. China has continued to procure Iranian oil by changing method of payments, which has placed India at a disadvantage.
Iran has in recent days offered to Pakistan connectivity between Gwadar and Chabahar. This is a message to India that Chabahar is not their property alone. How long would the sanctions last and for how long would Iran remain silent, before seeking to push Indian interests, is yet to be seen. It remains a fact that in international relations, there are no permanent friends or enemies, except national interest, yet support of allies count. India may be hoping to bounce back into Iran once sanctions are lifted, but it may be late.
The case of military procurements from Russia have faced more wrath and warnings from the US. The US has offered India its own air defence systems, in lieu of the S-400, which India has turned down. It has also offered armed drones and integrated air and missile defence technology. It is also likely to offer India its latest F 35 aircraft in case India cancels the S-400 deal, which may again be rejected. During and post recent elections, US objections on its procurement have been on the rise. Its representatives have regularly warned India that it would have to come under the gambit of CAATSA and future sales of military equipment could be impacted.
The reason given by the US is that employment of Russian and US equipment side by side, could compromise US equipment technical details including electronic signatures. They even attempted to block the sale of F-35 aircraft to Turkey, which is also procuring the S-400, however it refused to accept US diktat.
Simultaneously, the US is pushing India to consider the procurement its F-16, F-21 or even the F/A-18 aircraft in the ‘Make in India’ category, as part of the air force’s future programme. They had even offered to shift the complete F-16 manufacturing plant to India. In the latest move, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, R Clark Cooper, will be in India this week to discuss the same. The deal is worth USD 15 Billion.
Surprisingly, if India has refused to cancel its procurement of the S-400 systems and the US claim that it could compromise technical details of their aircraft, then the US should not have offered shifting their aircraft manufacturing units of F 16/ 21 aircraft. Their statement should have been ‘No US aircraft if you procure the S-400.’ It is evident that their objections are only a ploy to push India to procure their aircraft, thereby replacing Russia as the largest supplier to India, while claims on the S-400 are only a threat. In addition, such a procurement would imply long term involvement for spares and maintenance.
India on the other hand continues to appease the US by signing more defence deals, including procuring 24 Lockheed Martin-Sikorsky MH 60 R helicopters to strengthen the navy’s anti-submarine, anti-surface warfare and surveillance capabilities. This deal alone is worth Rs 17,500 crore.
India should realize that the US seeks Indian backing on their national interests, ignoring its own. It considers India’s strategic interests subordinate to its own. Actions by the US are clearly black mail and should be considered as such. Falling into their trap would result in India losing its trusted historical allies and would make India completely dependent on the US. It should evaluate all options including the Swedish SAAB and the latest Russian Sukhoi’s before finalizing its aircraft deal. It should seek to call the US bluff on CAATSA for procuring the S-400 missile systems. India should not fall into the US trap.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army