Countering Trump’s blackmail CENJOWS 07 Aug 19
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=198
Countering Trump’s blackmail CENJOWS 07 Aug 19
The recent visit of Imran Khan to the US led to comments which were contrary to Indian views. In the joint press interaction, prior to commencing discussions, Trump stated that in Osaka during the G20 summit, PM Modi had asked whether he would be willing to mediate on Kashmir. He reiterated this statement last week but added that it was clearly a bilateral issue and he would only mediate if India desired. These comments go against the very core of Indian perception on Kashmir. For India, Kashmir, including Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) is a bilateral issue and would only be an Indo-Pak discussion without any outside mediation.
This view has been accepted across the globe and no nation or leader has ever volunteered to mediate. However, most have stated that they would desire that talks commence, and a solution be found between the two nuclear powered adversaries. Immediately after Trump’s initial comment, the government issued multiple statements, including two in the parliament (by the foreign and defence ministers) denying that such a dialogue had ever happened. Post his second comment, India again flagged the issue with the US and the foreign minister raised it with the US secretary of state.
There is no denial that Trump is known to make vague comments, especially when trapped by the press in planted questions and praised. Trump was replying to a question asked by a Pakistani journalist when he commented on Kashmir. He has repeatedly stated that every leader he meets is excellent and he gets along very well with him. He even remarked negatively on Afghanistan, forcing the nation to seek a clarification. Senior US diplomats rushed to Kabul to cool down tempers.
To ensure the support of Pak in handling Afghanistan, Trump could have made promises contrary to Indian interests. He would have been reminded that India can be pushed thus far and no more. He would have been told that Indo-US relations have a limit to tolerance and Kashmir is a no-go area even for a US President and the US should not even consider touching it. Thus, his second comment was that it is a bilateral issue.
Pakistan as usual jumped on these statements. For them, it was words they were desperate to hear. To pump Trump more, Imran heaped praise on him, words which Trump loves to hear. For Pakistan the icing on the cake would be commencement of Indo-Pak talks without dismantling terrorist networks or only appearing to do so.
Trump’s next dream appears to be winning the Nobel Peace Prize, which in his opinion would only come about if he resolves one of the two major contentious issues dominating the world, North Korea or Kashmir and even if he is recommended, it would bolster his chances in the forthcoming elections.
Post the recent missile test by North Korea, which was criticized by both, Japan and South Korea, Trump tried to play it down stating that it was only a short-range missile, and these were not discussed in any meeting between the two. He also hopes he could get India to accept his offer of mediation enhancing his chances of a global award.
The US desires Pakistan’s support to resolve the Afghanistan crises, from where Trump is desperate to withdraw. It wants Pak to push the Taliban for talks with the Afghan government, leading to the formation of a coalition government assisting US withdrawal. It did appear that the meeting between Imran and Trump was like two beggars, seeking aid from one another. Pak seeking financial and military aid and pushing India for talks, while the US seeking Pak pushing the Taliban for talks. However, little materialized. Both made promises, which neither would keep.
Pak has begun feeling that the US needs its support now, as it is keen to withdraw before US presidential elections in Nov 2020. Therefore, it has attempted to link Kashmir to Afghanistan, hoping Trump would oblige and he appears to be doing so.
The Pak army chief was also in the US seeking spares for US manufactured platforms and additional weapons to enhance the capability of the forces. These were being sought on the possibility of the US releasing aid or the Coalition Support Fund if it pushes the Taliban for talks.
There was no mention of US aid to Pak being restored during the talks. There was only a vague reference to it. Two days after the visit the US state department announced that Trump proposed to approve a USD 125 Million technical support for Pak’s F 16 fleet of aircraft. This would help the US in 24×7 end-use monitoring of the F-16 fighter jets of Pakistan. It may subsequently consider reopening military sales to Pak.
Pak sought to create the right atmosphere for the visit by arresting Hafiz Saeed prior to departure and closing all terrorist camps in the vicinity of the LoC. Trump’s tweet on the subject indicated that Pakistan had befooled the naïve US President. Pakistan’s former envoy to the UK, Wajid Shamsul Hasan, in an op-ed published in ‘Surkiyan’ wrote, ‘ninth time arrest of the terror group Jamaat-ud-Dawa’s chief has a lot to do with Khan’s Washington Yatra.’
He added, ‘Hafiz Saeed while meeting his followers despite his arrest, conveys to them not to worry, says it is temporary flirtation of Pakistani leaders to hoodwink the Americans. Once they secure their pound of flesh, business would be restored to back to usual.’ Thus, the arrest has evidently been done to misguide Trump, push for release of funds as also pressure on India.
India US relations are at the strategic level. The 2+2 dialogue places the relationship on a different plane. Yet, the US which expected itself to be India’s major arms supplier is now slipping away. Despite the signing of multiple treaties, COMCASA (Communication Capability and Security Agreement) and LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement), with BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-spatial Cooperation) and the Industrial Security Annexure (ISA) on the way, it is Russia which dominates the Indian defence market.
Simultaneously, Trump and his administration have been seeking to question Indian decisions on its purchase of the S 400 Missile systems and its tariff regulations. India has even been threatened with sanctions under CAATSA for procuring the S 400, which it has ignored. On multiple occasions Trump has questioned Indian tariffs in his tweets. India has remained steadfast in its approach and ignored his provocations. For Trump everything boils down to business and opening of jobs. Each international action by Trump is financial as that has been his only forte.
The US is desperate to enhance its share in the Indian arms market. It has on multiple occasions offered India its F16/18/21 fighter aircraft, even promising to shift complete manufacturing facilities to the country. Every senior US diplomat to India comes with the offer of sales of military equipment and ‘make in India’.
There is never any discussion between the US and India on sale of similar equipment to India’s adversaries. Indian procurement from Russia entails a clear understanding that Russia would not provide similar or near similar equipment to Pakistan. This would ensure Indian dominance of conventional capabilities.
The US only places restrictions on employment of the equipment. Once it releases coalition support fund or aid to Pakistan, it could open doors for sale of military hardware. US-Pak ties have no bearing on India-US ties except where it comes to provision of military hardware to Pak. If India is to continue to procure military hardware from the US, then there should be clear limits to what the US should could sell to Pak and the limits within which it must act on Kashmir. Businessman Trump cannot be selling near similar equipment to both countries and talking of mediation.
Unless the US firmly agrees to this and understands the limits of Indian tolerance including keeping its hands of Indo-Pak talks, Indian procurements from the US should be reduced. This would hurt businessman Trump more than anything else. There are multiple other suppliers including Israel, Russia and European nations with similar quality equipment, which India can consider. They would be more than happy to agree to Indian terms.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army