Pak acting in desperation (English Version) Amar Ujala 03 Sep 19
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Pak acting in desperation (English Version) Amar Ujala 03 Sep 19
The announcement by Amit Shah on the floor of the house on 5th August took Pakistan by surprise. What hurt them even more was that J and K was split into two union territories and amalgamated into India. There was talk on the same, but no major step was envisaged. Every valley based political party and the Hurriyat was so certain of their power and the hatred they had sowed in the valley that they even threatened the government to take this step.
The government had prepared well. It had isolated local politicians and separatists and flooded the valley with security forces to prevent any untoward incident. It also pushed in curfew and cut off all communication to impose peace. It had adopted hard measures to prevent loss of lives, as this was the only solution. Thus, with passage of over three weeks, the region remains peaceful, with not a single loss to security forces firing. Normalcy has been restored across South of Pir Panjal, while restrictions remain imposed in the valley. In some parts of the valley land lines have been restored.
Pak, which was left shell-shocked rushed to seek international support. It was in for disappointment. Its own allies, barring China, stood by India. The UN ignored its multiple calls, while the US, which had earlier stated its willingness to mediate now mentioned that Kashmir is a bilateral issue. Even those whom it had banked on, including Saudi and UAE supported India. Pak was alone, realized the same, yet to save face continued its rhetoric. Diplomatically, Pak had lost.
Its ISI and ISPR created a collection of fake video’s either of its own atrocities in Baluchistan and Wazirabad or from Indian riots in 2016 and earlier, including those in Chandigarh post the sentencing of Ram Rahim, doctored them and prepared to release them on social media, to ignite fire in the valley. It failed as social media continues to remain blocked and security forces remain deployed. This added to frustration. Pak complains on closure of social media, not because of love for Kashmiri’s but because it needs it to instigate the public.
Pak has now begun attempting infiltration, seeking to reignite the dying militancy in the valley. Militants in the valley remain low as security presence has increased. There have been few encounters since the government decision. To avoid being caught in the FATF trap, it is attempting to push in residents of POK and Afghans. Indian retaliation, which remains hard and strong has caused damage to Pak bases and increased their losses.
They would most probably have tasked infiltrating militants to strike local population, on which they could blame either Indian forces or members of the RSS and enhance tempers amongst the local public. This could then be exploited globally as India attempting genocide. India is bound to retaliate to any major Pak action, as it did post Uri and Pulwama. Pak is hoping that such an action would bring Kashmir back on the world stage.
Internally in Pak, the Indian action has come as a face saver. Its prices of basic food essentials are soaring. The Roti and Naan workers unions are on strike as the government seeks to regulate their prices. Oil prices drop across the globe but rise in Pakistan. Unemployment is on the rise and inflation is running at around 10%. The FATF threat looms large while the Pak budget allocates 42% for interest payments and 17% for defence. There is nothing for social and infrastructure development.
The Pak army has been facing failures at every front. In addition to losses to Indian firing, it has also faced reverses against the Baluch freedom fighters and the Pakistan Taliban. Within Pak, Kashmir, India, religion and support to the army bind the national public and divert minds. The government has exploited all off these on the Indian decision to abrogate Article 370. With media regulated and opposition leaders behind bars, there is hardly anyone to criticize the government and the army for their failures.
It is with this backdrop that Pak leader’s comments in recent times should be read. Imran has mentioned on multiple occasions of Indian false flag operations, which could lead to an action like Balakote. Qureshi has been warning the international community that both nuclear powered nations face a risk of war. He has also claimed that RSS terrorists are being sent to the valley to commit genocide. The Pak army chief continuously mentions defending the country at all costs. Its testing of the Ghaznavi missile is aimed at this. The Pak minister Sheik Rashid warns of a war in Oct. Pak is desperate for violence in the valley, whether it be ignited by locals or by militants inducted by them.
For Pak, time appears to be running out. With peace in Kashmir, the world is losing interest. Nations across the globe have stated that the matter is bilateral. There are graver trouble spots which demand international attention, rather than Kashmir. These include Brazil’s Amazon forest fires, Hong Kong, slowing of the world economy amid rising tensions between the US and Iran as also the US-China trade war, etc. The last chance before Imran is his UN General Assembly address on 28th Sept. He speaks a day after PM Modi.
Modi would speak on global issues with only a passing reference to Pak and nothing on Kashmir. India is a nation growing in international stature and the 15 mins address cannot be devoted to internal issues and a small pinprick, Pakistan. India must project according to its international standing. Imran, whose country faces debt, poverty and increased polio cases, has nothing else to project except Kashmir, hence he states that he would speak on Kashmir in the General Assembly.
India needs to offset Pak plans. It cannot now let its guard down. It may have to continue to maintain strong deployment and control release of communication in the valley. The longer peace reigns, the more Pak is frustrated. India has won the battle till date, it should now plan to win the war.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army