Stalled Afghan peace talks CENJOWS 12 Sep 19
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=210
Stalled Afghan peace talks CENJOWS 12 Sep 19
The announcement of Khalilzad last week that he has almost come to an agreement with the Taliban on establishing peace in Afghanistan and leading to a US withdrawal, hit a roadblock over the weekend. Two, near simultaneous, terrorist strikes including one which took the lives of two Resolute Support Mission soldiers in Kabul, including a US soldier, led to Trump abruptly withdrawing from the talks.
In a series of tweets on the subject, Trump stated, ‘Unbeknownst to almost everyone, the major Taliban leaders and, separately, the President of Afghanistan, were going to secretly meet with me at Camp David on Sunday. Unfortunately, in order to build false leverage, they admitted to an attack in Kabul that killed one of our great soldiers, and 11 other people. I immediately cancelled the meeting and called off peace negotiations.’
This has put an end to the talks for the present, though Khalilzad had rushed to Qatar, post Trump’s announcement. What transpired in Qatar remains unknown. In fact, the Taliban intentions were very clear from the commencement of talks. Intercepted Taliban communications had indicated that the Taliban had thought ‘they have fooled the US.’ The lack of trust and the knowledge that the Taliban would renege on its promise even compelled US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, to decline putting his name on the deal. This would also have influenced Trump to some level.
US strategists including military leaders had repeatedly warned Trump against concluding an early deal with the Taliban. General Mark Milley, Trump’s nominee for Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff stated in his Senate Armed Services confirmation hearing, ‘withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan too soon would be a strategic mistake.’ Col Rahman Rahmani, an Afghan writer stated, “People who know Islam are aware of KHID’A (deceit), a tactical word that can legitimate Déjà vu, all over again. Muslims are allowed to not adhere to agreements they sign with infidels they are in fight. Based on this, Taliban terrorists can deny any agreement at any time and they will.”
Bill Roggio of the Washington based Foundation for Defence of Democracies had stated, ‘The Taliban’s goals for Afghanistan have not changed. It seeks to eject the US, re-establish its Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and impose its Islamic government.’ The US was aiming to fool the world on its achieving success, whereas the reality was that it was withdrawing in defeat.’
The message being conveyed by the Taliban to its rank and file also indicated that they believed victory was near. The Taliban have stated to the press, on occasions, that the easy way to defeat the US is to just refuse to surrender and slowly the US will accept defeat and withdraw. The US cannot sustain losses after some time. While the US military may be aware of the pitfalls of an early withdrawal, its polity lacks the spirit to fight.
The one nation, which has been most impacted by Trump’s decision to call of talks, is Pakistan. Its ISI continues to shelter the top Taliban leadership in Quetta, which was simultaneously controlling both, the talks in Quetta and the violence in Afghanistan. The Pak leadership was hoping for an early conclusion of talks thus enabling it to move its troops from its Western to Eastern borders against India.
The ISI would have made the Taliban leadership believe that increasing violence in Kabul would act as pressure on the US and push it to withdraw faster, almost handing over Afghanistan to them. It had failed to judge US reaction. Hence, Trump had rightly given his logic by stating in a tweet, ‘What kind of people would kill so many in order to seemingly strengthen their bargaining position? They didn’t, they only made it worse.’
Had the US withdrawn it would have been another Saigon, the second time they would have dumped a country they came to rescue to the same forces they defended it from. Historically, the US would face criticism for eternity. The Afghan people who would have been the biggest sufferers in the deal, would now be relieved. Afghan elections are due later this month. This was under uncertainty while the talks were being held. In all probability these would now be on schedule.
The US had adopted different approaches to enable its withdrawal, all of which have been proved wrong. It had enabled release of Taliban leaders and engaged them under their conditions, which implied ignoring the Afghan government. It had welcomed Imran, the Prime Minister of the nation which shelters the Taliban, to the US and even placated Pakistan to the extent of offering to mediate between India and them, provided they delivered the Taliban. It had reduced its engagement with the Afghan forces, enabling the Taliban to expand the area under its control. It had also stopped cross border drone strikes into Pak, hoping for its cooperation.
Its every approach was taken for granted. This was aggravated by the message which Khalilzad continued conveying, which was that despite everything, the US will withdraw, deal or no deal. This message and those flowing from US Central Command Commanders that Pak remains a major member in its fight against the Taliban, created within the Pak deep state the confidence to advice the Taliban that any attack close to US bases would make the withdrawal faster. It also enabled Pak to play a double game. This approach needs to be immediately reversed.
The issue remains what should logically be the next step for the US. There are multiple scenarios. The US could ignore talks for now and enhance their engagement with the Afghan forces and increase pressure on the Taliban. They could recommence talks, with the rider of a ceasefire before commencing dialogue or at least no attacks within range of US troops. This would again lead to similar incidents or convey to the world the US intentions of withdrawing in defeat. The third could be that the US decides against withdrawing and enhances force levels. Finally, Trump could again reiterate his call, which he made during the G7 summit, that nations in the vicinity of Afghanistan may have to place boots on the ground.
Whatever option the US adopts, if it seeks to enhance its chances of success, then it must target the Quetta Shura, as the Taliban leadership in Pakistan is termed. It may have to recommence drone strikes across the border with Pakistan. Simultaneously, it must increase pressure on Pak, which has ensured the protection of the Taliban leadership.
Pressure on Pak would never flow from verbal threats alone but need a combination of actions. Militarily, cross border strikes must immediately commence, economically, the IMF must reconsider its loan to Pak, the FATF must consider placing it on the Blacklist and internationally, Pak must be accused of harbouring terrorists. Unless Pak is pushed, the Taliban would remain secure and believe that victory is theirs.
The Quetta Shura should not be permitted to live to fight another day. Unless the Taliban leadership is targeted, Afghanistan would never see peace. Only decimation of the Taliban leadership would break the will of its local fighters. It is for Trump and his country to decide whether it must fight till victory or withdraw in defeat.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army