Prognosis grim for Pakistan in 2020 The Statesman 07 Jan 20
https://epaper.thestatesman.com/2499021/Kolkata-The-Statesman/7TH-JANUARY-2020#page/7/2
Prognosis grim for Pakistan in 2020 07 Jan 20
The last few months of 2019 gave a foreboding on what the present year would hold for Pak. The decisions of the supreme court, against General Bajwa and Musharraf, broke the jinx of the all-powerful Pak army. While, it may be just a display of bravado by the judges, aware that their words could ring hollow, it opened doors to questioning the unbridled powers of the army. The diplomatic fiasco by Imran of being the initiator of the Kuala Lumpur summit and then backing out at the last moment on pressure from Saudi Arabia indicates that the nation cannot, anywhere in the future, possess an independent foreign policy.
The weekly howling by Imran Khan and SM Qureshi, the foreign minister, on India possibly using a false flag operation to launch attacks on Pak have had no takers. It has become the case of crying wolf, aware that if there is a terror strike, India would retaliate, willing to risk escalation, despite any nuclear threat. It is aware that India could act aggressively even if a terror strike is imminent.
Pak has learned through global rejections that its intention of compelling India to revert its Kashmir decision has failed. It has also learnt that it remains globally ignored, while India continues to be a major player, despite some independent international groups and political entities accusing it of being religiously biased. India is currently winning the battle on Kashmir.
Blacklisting of Pakistan by the FATF looms large as it has been warned by almost all nations including Russia and China. This is because of its continued support to terrorist groups in the Af-Pak region which is even threatening Central Asian nations and China. Its support to the Taliban enabling it to continue targeting US and Afghan forces on one hand, while seeking to support peace talks on the other, would lead to further international pressure as casualties in Afghanistan increase. If ISIS presence grows in Af-Pak, which is likely, it would face enhanced pressure.
Finally, is its receding economy, dependent on doles and loans, which would become more stretched once repayment to China commences. Inflation in Pak in Dec 2019 was above 12.5%. No Pak politician has had the guts to state that their army, which has, for its own personal reasons backed the CPEC, is leading Pak down a debt trap, forcing it to become another Chinese province in a few years.
With this backdrop, we need to assess Pak’s future in 2020. The year commenced with the cabinet passing the amendment extending the tenure of the army chief as mandated by the supreme court. It roped in all political parties in the country to push requisite changes through the senate. The action displayed how indebted the present government is to General Bajwa for its survival. It also indicates the power which exists with the army chief, which is a threat to Pakistan’s fragile democracy.
Imran has no choice as he is dependent on the power of the state institutions which the army controls, to subdue his opposition. Once extension is granted, the army chief would become all too powerful and Pak’s democracy threatened.
Economically, Pak will see no change, possibly move further downhill, as its financial payments increase, while revenue flows reduce. Inflation would neither recede nor would there be any employment opportunities adding to internal anger. FATF Blacklisting is possible, even if Pak manages to escape it once again, pressure on it would continue and continuation on the Grey List is certain. Imran’s dreams of making Pakistan a welfare state would stay either on paper or in speeches.
At some stage during this year, US patience on Pak pushing Taliban for talks would end and could result in enhanced pressure and recommencement of cross border drone strikes.
Diplomatically, Pakistan would continue harping on Kashmir, ignoring its own poor human rights accord and Chinese actions on Uighurs. Thus, it would not gain internationally. Its proposed OIC foreign minister’s summit on Kashmir, in Apr, would have few takers. Its close allies including Saudi Arabia and UAE would either ignore the meet or water down the resolution.
The Kashmir issue would die a natural death as India lifts communication restrictions within the valley. Desperation within Pak would lead to it spreading fake propaganda against Indian actions seeking to enhance religious tensions.
Overall, with India there would be no improvement in relations and Pak would remain wary about any Indian retaliation. It would keep harping globally on Indian retaliation to a ‘False Flag operation’, with few takers. It will be forced to control its terrorists from launching any major operations in India. Simultaneously, it would continue instigating Kashmiri’s hoping for internal violence. It is unlikely to resume High Commissioner level diplomacy for some time.
Relations with Afghanistan will remain tense and border clashes continue. It would push for more Chinese investment in the CPEC, including establishing Special Economic Zones, thereby improving relations with China and ensuring diplomatic and economic support.
Its domestic internal security situation indicated a marked improvement from earlier years in 2019. It may remain the same, though pressure from Baluch Freedom Fighters and the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement would remain. It is possible that pressure on Pak may increase from the international community on its human rights abuses in these provinces. It may resort to merging POK with the nation, aimed at copying the Indian decision.
Internally, if anger continues against Imran for failing to resolve the nation’s economic problems, it could lead to his replacement in the latter part of the year. 2019 economic failures enhanced internal anger. The army may not take over the country but continue ruling from behind, with Qureshi in command.
Pak’s internal instability will remain through 2020 and relations with India tense. Pak would attempt to divert internal economic pressures by projecting Kashmir and the BJP as an anti-Muslim party. India would need to continue application of pressure on Pak to ensure it controls its terrorists. International pressure and attention would remain on Pak.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army