The boiling Af-Pak region CENJOWS 14 Jan 2020
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=236
The boiling Af-Pak region CENJOWS 14 Jan 2020
The US and the Taliban are once again engaged in peace talks, which are akin to an electric switch, off and on. After being put once again on hold, talks have recommenced amidst conflicting statements and almost no further progress. The official US view was that the Taliban have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire while talks between the Afghan government and Taliban commence. The Taliban leadership have denied this statement and to prove their point attacked and killed US and Afghan security personnel last week.
In recent inputs, the US president, Donald Trump, is likely to announce a further cut of troops in the country by 4000 – 5000 at an early date. This is defended by the US on the grounds that the cut would not impact US training and operational support to the Afghan forces.
There are also reports that the US remains uncertain on the ability of the Afghan security forces to battle the Taliban and other terrorist groups which have entrenched themselves in the country. This is because of high attrition rate, infiltration by the Taliban into their ranks and desertions. In their opinion, training and supporting this force may not be the answer. They are of the opinion that withdrawal would be a safer option, leaving the country to its fate. Mark Esper, the US Secretary of Defence stated that the withdrawal is aimed at enhancing forces against US’s major threat- China.
What has been unsaid over time is the proliferation of terrorist groups in the Afghan- Pakistan region, which has enhanced security concerns for nations surrounding Afghanistan. The presence of the Taliban, Haqqani network, ISIS and the al Qaeda is well known. While the Taliban and the ISIS control some regions, there are other affiliates which are also operating in the region. In some cases, these are being backed by the Pak deep state. To further add to confusion is the militia with local warlords, affiliated to the government. Their future is a major aspect in any peace talks.
Amongst the prominent groups is the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. The leader of the group moved with his supporters to Pakistan after being dealt a severe blow in his home country. He was eliminated by a US drone strike however his group now continues operating in the Af-Pak region in conjunction with the al Qaeda. Alongside them is the Islamic Jihad Union, comprising of Uighurs.
Another Uighur group in the area is that Turkistan Islamic Party, which also operates alongside the al Qaeda in Af-Pak and Syria. It is this group which China remains wary off. It claims holding onto parts of Afghan territory and possesses captured Afghan military equipment, details of which are regularly released on social media. This proliferation of terrorist groups in the region, backed by funds from illegal production of poppy and some support from the deep state makes the region a hotbed for terrorist activities which could impact not only South Asia, but also Central Asia. Porous borders and lack of control within the region has made it easy for these groups to move in and establish bases.
Currently, while the US is seeking an early withdrawal, the Taliban appears in no hurry knowing its bases are secure in Pakistan. They do not seek talks with the current Afghan government but desire the country on a platter. Pakistan is also pushing for the same, aware that intra-Afghan talks could drag on for a long time and add to uncertainty in the country. Pakistan is surviving on the hope that with a friendly Taliban government in Kabul, India may be side lined and its hold on the country may increase.
Presently, each terrorist group operates in its own area, clashes between them avoided. The largest groups, Taliban and ISIS, though with different ideologies, have a common enemy, the Afghan forces and the US. Tensions would begin to rise once the Taliban senses victory post signing the deal with the US. It would then seek to regain control over the region, leading to clashes within groups.
This future scenario has many neighbouring countries worried. China has been insisting that Pak changes its policies and stops backing terrorist groups. Hence, its representatives threatened Pak with the FATF Blacklist recently.
Russia, fearing the spread of violence from Afghanistan to its Central Asian countries warned Pak on the same. Russia’s warning came during the eighth Russia-Pakistan joint working group of counterterrorism in Moscow on November 12. During the meeting, the Russian side pointed out that while Russia did not support the blacklisting the previous time, the need to take active measures has come to avoid being blacklisted.
The other warning from Russia related to the presence of ISIS in the Af-Pak region. The focus of ISIS activities is shifting to Pakistan and other south Asian countries. The Russian side stated that the ISIS was regrouping in Afghanistan and the total number of foreign terrorists in the country was now about 4,000, mostly from Pakistan.
Despite all its actions of backing the Taliban, Pakistan may be in for a surprise in the long term. While it may be fencing its border with Afghanistan, it may not be able to stem the outflow of the battle between multiple terrorist groups from spreading across. It may be housing the Taliban leadership and the current head of al Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri on its soil, yet, the battle for dominating parts of Afghanistan would spill into Pak.
Pak nationals are part and parcel of each terrorist group in the region. Over 250 Pak nationals forming part of the ISIS, recently surrendered to the Afghan army. There would be many more still operating in Afghanistan with multiple groups in the region. More would join in the future.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is another formidable force which threatens Pak from its bases in Afghanistan. In addition is the Baluch Republican Army which attacks Pak troops from its bases in the region and from across the border in Afghanistan and Iran. There is also the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) slowly gaining ground in the region.
In this scenario, unless Pak acts as is being advised from all major powers, it may be heading for terrorist groups and activities spilling across the border into its own state. It can no longer afford to play the double game of supporting terrorism, while seeking peace. The snakes which it has reared are set to bite back at their benefactor. It could also become a pariah nation if it does not act.
As the ex-Pak army chief, General Kayani, stated to the then US Ambassador to Pak, Ryan Crocker, ‘one day you’ll be gone again, it’ll be like Afghanistan the first time, you’ll be done with us, but we’re still going to be here because we can’t actually move the country. And the last thing we want with all of our other problems is to have turned the Taliban into a mortal enemy.’ Hence, despite everything, the Af-Pak region is unlikely to witness peace in a long time, unless Pak gets its act together, an action which it hesitates to do.
India should remain concerned as the region becoming a hotbed for terrorists would impact our security concerns in the future. There are already reports that Pak has over 200 Afghan war veterans desperate to infiltrate into the country. Hence, pressure must remain on Pak.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army