China’s growing clout in the region CENJOWS 12 Feb 2020
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=242
China’s growing clout in the region 12 Feb 2020
The first visit of Xi Jinping, the Chinese President, this year was to Myanmar. For India, Chinese inroads into a region it considers its backyard, is a matter of concern. While China has every right to be involved with nations in South Asia, there are occasions when Chinese involvement is directly against Indian interests and adds to security concerns.
The recent visit of Xi to Myanmar was timed to perfection. It was done when Myanmar was under increased international pressure on its handling of the Rohingya crises. China and India had both backed Myanmar in this crises, but Chinese support in the UNSC, preventing any adverse criticism, ensured that Xi Jinping was received with gratitude in Myanmar.
This visit comes a month after Aung San Suu Kyi, the current de-facto Myanmar head of state defended the country at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on accusations of genocide against Rohingya minorities. An interim judgement issued by the ICJ directed Myanmar to protect its Rohingya population. The final decision could take years. Further Myanmar would soon be having elections for which development could be a major agenda.
An important discussion on the table during the visit was the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), on similar lines as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). For China, CPEC is a benchmark, which it seeks to sell across the globe. Hence, will never accept any criticism of the same, nor will it let Pak interfere in its plans of implementation. This was evident by the Chinese counter to comments made by the US acting secretary of state for South Asia, Alice Wells, in Islamabad.
China views Myanmar as a gateway into the Indian Ocean. During the visit, the two nations inked a total of 33 agreements, covering infrastructure projects, railways, industrial, power projects, trade and investment. An agreement for the Kyaukpyu Special Economic Zone (SEZ) deep seaport project was also inked. This is critical for China as it would provide it with an alternative to the Malacca Straits, which is their current lifeline for energy and trade.
It may appear that there is an enhanced involvement of China in Myanmar, however, Richard Horsey, a Yangon-based analyst with the International Crisis Group stated, ‘While a number of different agreements have been signed, there is no big bang here.’ Myanmar is possibly wary of Chinese investments.
There are reports that Myanmar could stall projects by adopting the approach of feasibility studies, rather than accepting projects immediately. During the visit, projects stalled from earlier agreements including the Myitsone Hydropower and the Copper mining projects were not discussed.
During his visit to Nepal in Oct 19, Xi Jinping aimed to push stalled projects linked to the China-Nepal Economic corridor, which was initially inked in 2017 and stuck at the level of feasibility studies possibly due to Indian influence. Xi’s Oct visit occurred when the Pro-China Nepalese Communist Party had consolidated itself post a merger of two left-wing political parties. This, alongside CPEC and CMEC indicates growing Chinese footprint in India’s backyard. Another highlight of the visit kept under wraps till recently, was a specific agreement signed between the two countries concerning Tibetans.
Recently, a newspaper article from Kathmandu quoted the agreement signed during the visit as akin to an extradition treaty. The agreement states that Nepal and China will handover people entering each other’s borders without documents within 7 days of being taken into custody. It was clearly aimed at dissenting Tibetans seeking to flee Tibet for either India or Nepal itself. It does not concern Nepalese as other than few shepherds who cross the border by mistake, no one enters Tibet.
While Indo-Bangladesh ties have been moving in the right direction, despite the country leadership voicing concerns on the Citizen Amendment Act, yet the Chinese factor will always play a role. Bangladesh is an active member of the Belt Road Initiative of China. In Jul last year, China signed deals worth $ 21.5 Billion mainly in power projects and rail-road bridge construction. In 2016, Bangladesh, on prompting from India, quietly killed the Sonadia port project, which could have bought China closer to Indian shores.
Within this region India has been pushing the Bangladesh- China- India- Myanmar (BCIM) project. This 2,800-km corridor proposes to link Kunming in China with Kolkata, via Mandalay and Dhaka. This could have led to better cooperation between India and China, however, with China signing independent projects with nations as part of the BRI, it does appear that Indian plans have been unsuccessful. Under Indian pressure, China dropped BCIM from the BRI.
Xi visited Sri Lanka last in 2014, when the nation was facing international concerns on Human Rights violations in its curbing the Tamil insurgency in its North East. Xi visited Maldives the same year leading to India being pushed out of the country. In both these countries, India has been able to partially reverse Chinese influence, despite China obtaining a 99-year lease for the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka.
Chinese presence in Pak is well established. Joint naval exercises conducted recently in the Arabian Sea indicates that Chinese presence in Gwadar is there to stay. India has been objecting to the CPEC as it passes through Gilgit Baltistan.
India has been closely monitoring Chinese developments in its backyard. It has enhanced its own cooperation with nations in the region. Indian financial support cannot be compared to financial backing being provided by China, however, is not a means of pushing the nation into a debt trap.
Across the region there is a desire for development and improving quality of life. This gets a greater push as democratic governments seek quick projects to display development to their public, to regain power. Thus, nations rush to adopt faulty models of Sri Lanka and some African nations, thereby falling into Chinese debt traps. Pakistan, despite all internal criticism is moving deeper into a similar trap.
Indian cooperation with its neighbours must increase and the nations should develop the trust to first approach India for financial assistance. The BCIM corridor must be given greater impetus. Finally, India must accept reality and learn to live with China in its backyard. China is here to stay. India must develop its strategies keeping Chinese presence in its neighbourhood in mind.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army