The shoe is firmly on the other foot The Excelsior 04 Jun 2020
The shoe is firmly on the other foot 04 Jun 2020
India has been facing Pakistan sponsored terrorism in J and K for over three decades. During this period, the valley has witnessed ups and downs in levels of terrorism. Aiming to push India further into a corner, Pakistan employed its terrorists to launch attacks deep within the country, including the Indian parliament and Mumbai. It successfully exploited its nuclear bogey as a counterweight to deter Indian reactions. Kargil, which could have given India an opportunity to cross the LoC, was also discarded considering Pak’s nuclear threat.
Post 9/11, the role of Pakistan in providing a logistics base for forces deployed in Afghanistan and its strong links with the Taliban gave it leverage with western nations, which it exploited to the hilt. Any attempts by India to draw Pak before world bodies for supporting terrorism was thwarted by those needing Pak’s support in Afghanistan. With the backing of China, Pak continued getting bolder.
The first change in India’s policy, witnessed by Pak, was post the Uri attack. Pak was certain that akin to previous incidents, India would remain a mute spectator and raise the issue globally. India maintained silence, refused to approach global forums and decided to act unilaterally. The cross-border strike caused panic in Pak military circles. They hid the truth from their own countrymen, disposed casualties and sought to recreate their mass of cannon fodder terrorists. However, they remained wary of Indian response.
When Pulwama happened, dates of which Pak was aware, and expecting a similar cross-border strike, it deployed additional forces along the LOC. Balakote shook them hard. They closed their airspace for over 40 days, locked down the stricken Balakote for a similar period, all the while claiming only crows and trees were destroyed. The message had gone. Fear was palpable within the Pak hierarchy. The casualties caused in the strike had lesser consequence than the message which was conveyed. Its nuclear deterrence had been blown to smithereens.
Such was the fear within their leadership that they released the Indian pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan, within days, fearing another Indian strike. Globally, they received no support. Alice Wells, the US Under Secretary of State for South Asia stated a few days ago, ‘India did not come under criticism for its response (Balakote). And it did not come under criticism by principal allies or partners or friends of Pakistan because there was a deep concern over the fact that a non-state actor was being allowed to, or was able to operate in a fashion that was destabilising to global security.’ Pakistan realized it was alone.
The Indian government’s action of abrogating article 370 added to Pak’s woes. It had no answer, hence chose to degrade levels of diplomatic ties and stop trade, none of which mattered. It knew then that it had lost the Kashmir plot. Months of peace and low levels of violence in the valley, post the abrogation, was a matter of concern for Pakistan. Added to it were claims by Indian politicians that the only part of Kashmir left to discuss was POK.
Fearing an attack to regain some part of POK, Imran began tweeting on false flag operations. The first such tweet was on 23rd Aug. It was Pak, which begun moving into defensive and fearing an Indian offensive. Every input on elimination of terrorists from Pak was followed by similar tweets. Imran neither had nor has any inkling on how Modi would react in the future. In panic, he has taken to calling him names and comparing his government to that of Nazi’s, a level no global leader has ever fallen to. It is indicative of growing panic, frustration and despair. His tweets are rebroadcasted only by ISI paid trolls, no one else bothers.
Pakistan has also realised that global support had shifted in India’s favour. To attempt to befool the FATF and display their lack of involvement in terrorism in the valley, it created, ‘The Resistance Front’, a group supposedly based in Kashmir, whose social media account is controlled and located in Pakistan, under the ISI. No nation has fallen for Pak’s stunt.
For decades Pak had support of Middle East nations which also acted as a block for India. In recent times, even its close allies have abandoned it. In the last FATF meeting, Pakistan was saved from the Blacklist by just three mandatory votes, coming from China, Turkey and Malaysia. There is a change even in this grouping. With a new government in Malaysia, Pak remains sceptical of their support. Its alignment with Turkey, seeking to overthrow Saudi as the leader of the Muslim world is alienating Pakistan from its traditional allies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Currently, India is responding hard to Pakistan’s ceasefire violations along the LOC. Casualties are mounting on its side and it remains fearful of an Indian counterstrike, in the eventuality of a major terrorist operation. Indian service chiefs are regularly threatening Pak on responding whenever they attempt to cross Indian red lines. The Pak air force has been regularly conducting combat air patrols close to the border, displaying a sense of fear. It had never done so before Balakote.
Fear is so palpable within the top Pakistan leadership of an Indian strike, that they continue to harp of Indian ‘false flag’ operations. Imran Khan has tweeted on it over 17 times in the past one month. The day the Pak PM does not tweet, his foreign minister does. Even the downing of a ‘supposed Indian Quadcopter’, costing just Rs 4000 in the market and used for marriage photography, is tweeted by their foreign minister as an offensive action. They are desperately attempting to project that they have no role in Kashmir and any resistance is local. They remain aware that one terrorist strike could prove costly for Pak, especially at a time when its economy is in shatters.
Near economic collapse with mounting debts, increasing unemployment, growing insurgency in Baluchistan and a spreading pandemic, is enhancing anger within. Pak knows that displaying enmity with India would bind its people and shift attention from their daily miseries.
The Indian leadership nor the MEA responds to Imran and Qureshi’s comments. Globally no national leader has ever displayed such a poor level of statecraft or language against an adversary.
Pak remains tense and worried, fearing when, where and how India would strike next. Imran and his military cronies are currently having sleepless nights. The boot is finally and firmly on the other foot.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army