United face essential for effective China response The Statesman 16 Jun 2020

United face essential for effective China response The Statesman 16 Jun 2020

https://epaper.thestatesman.com/2714347/Kolkata-The-Statesman/16TH-JUNE-2020#page/7/2

United face essential for effective China response 16 Jun 2020

          The Indo-China standoff has entered the second month. Both forces are camped facing one another. There is some form of disengagement with both sides moving back in some regions. This does not signal the end of the stalemate but is a stopgap arrangement. Military talks are in the foreground, while diplomatic engagement continues behind the scenes.

It is evident that the standoff would end from diplomatic engagements, with army discussions being the front. The Chinese are seeking to send a message to India, not grab territory. Any occupation of territory would be temporary. China may have concerns on bridges built as part of the Darbuk-Shyokh-Daulat Beg Oldie all-weather road, however it is not the primary reason for its actions.

The challenge for the national leadership has been determining why Chinese acted, as partial pullbacks implies grabbing territory is not its major intention. Mixed signals have flowed from the mainland including economic policies, Indo-US-Australia partnership and converting Ladakh into a Union Territory.

There are five Indo-China agreements existing to resolve disputes and these are quoted whenever statements are issued. However, when an action is designed to enhance tensions, such agreements are ignored. This is aided by reality that the LAC remains a line of perception, which could change with time. China always changes its perceptions depending on which LAC sector it seeks to activate.

Despite multiple rounds of talks at the NSA-Chinese foreign minister level, China has refused to resolve border issues with India. An unresolved border works to their advantage. India has even sought partial resolution, implying closing discussions on regions where no major dispute exists, which China turns down.

Throughout the past month plus of the standoff, neither Indian nor Chinese political leadership have commented. This has always been the norm. Simultaneously, national spokespersons have generally made conciliatory statements, while on occasions accusing the other of being the initiator. Media networks on either sides have been vocal, blamed the other, projected their respective military capabilities while playing the propaganda game.   

Transgressions are a regular feature along the LAC. Their frequency has increased since Indian communication arteries have developed, permitting faster movement of troops to counter Chinese patrols. The patrolling season in Ladakh extends to Oct/Nov and hence there is no rush for a resolution.

The current situation is neither alarming nor worrisome as being projected by some. The army chief, General Naravane stated over the weekend, ‘I would like to assure everyone that the entire situation along our borders with China is under control,’ adding ‘both sides are disengaging in a phased manner.’

The current standoff is an interesting study on how differences within India dominate national security. In the current case, the standoff was initiated by China, which waded into Indian perceived LAC. The army deployed immediately and prevented further intrusion. China dug its heels and constructed camps and are now contained. Since then talks have continued at multiple levels to revert to status quo. However, some groups blame the Indian government and not China.

Indian politicians are aware of unofficial policies in such instances, which is maintaining silence permitting talks to proceed, rather than making leading statements to aggravate the situation. This has been the norm. However, it gives the opposition an opportunity to corner the government.

This is not the first time that Chinese incursions have been politically exploited. In Apr 2013, when a Chinese patrol entered Depsang and camped, the BJP accused the then government of being lax. The defence minister, AK Anthony commented, ‘There are disputed points where both sides go, which sometimes causes embarrassing situations.’ The standoff was resolved with talks, which was the chosen option. The shoe is currently on the other foot, as the government has similarly chosen talks for resolution. The recent statement of Rajnath Singh on the standoff is on similar lines as Anthony’s in 2013.

When only the ruling government is criticized alongside no anti-China comments, it is China which benefits. The internal divide within the nation provides them the confidence that the longer they prolong talks, the greater would be pressure on the government to yield to their demands, no matter how outlandish they are. It would also impact morale of the forces, deployed in extreme hard terrain to counter further Chinese moves.  

In the current scenario, neither nation desires an escalation, indicated by commencement of talks and partial withdrawal. With favourable weather till Nov, there is no rush for resolution. While China initiated the standoff, it too has concerns. As a nation, we need to join hands and unite to exploit Chinese concerns.

The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Hua Chunying, stated last week, ‘the relaxed border situation will give both countries greater flexibility on future economic and trade exchanges, which is in line with interests of both sides.’ The Global Times also stated, ‘Considering the impact of politics on the economy and business circles, bilateral trade would inevitably suffer amid rising anti-China sentiment in India.’

This is the weakness which should be exploited. For a start, Confederation of All India Traders which represents traders and trade associations has compiled a list of items which are currently imported from China and would be replaced by indigenous substitutes. It aims to reduce imports from China by USD 13 Billion by Dec 2021.

China also fears closer US-India strategic partnership. It has commented, ‘If India joins the US in confronting China, China will not hesitate to protect its own interests, whether political or economic. The cost of losing China’s friendship will be too high for India to bear.’ This threat will not impact India’s current global ties and groupings as it is in India’s national interests.

A united nation in times of challenge indicates strength and determination and puts the adversary on the backfoot. Unity has been a common feature against Pak, not China in the current setting. Uniting the nation is a government responsibility, which it has ignored. Its silence, while ignoring the opposition, has resulted in a divided nation benefitting China. The government must rethink its approach.