What are China’s regional ambitions CENJOWS 30 Jun 2020
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What are China’s regional ambitions? 30 Jun 2020
China’s spate of strong military and economic actions, against its adversaries, are neither rushed nor a reaction to threats. In every case, it is China which has taken the first offensive step, militarily pushing against nations across the region. Though the current Chinese leadership faces internal challenges and questioning for its multiple failures ranging from handling of COVID 19 to poor economic revival, it is illogical for them to simultaneously open multiple frontiers, without well-conceived logic. It is also unlikely that all challenges have arisen simultaneously. China has threatened nations in near vicinity with military power and those at a distance by economic actions.
Economically, China has challenged Europe and Australia, while facing a looming trade war with the US. Militarily, it is displaying aggressive actions against Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. The joint statement last week by ASEAN nations indicated that they are united against China. There is a standoff since May along the Indian LAC. China’s aggressiveness is at levels never witnessed before. It is pressurizing its challengers to a notch below that of open hostilities. Such actions cannot be random or uncoordinated.
This possibly indicates that either China is preparing decisive military action against one adversary, keeping others subdued or alternatively is seeking to project a message, announcing its arrival on the world stage as a challenger to the US. While the US expects China to attempt military action against one adversary, the second option of conveying a global message is equally probable.
For any Chinese leadership to reverse internal dissent and challenges, there are one of two major adversaries, which it could attempt to subdue. These could be either Taiwan or India. Hence, maximum probing is currently on against these two countries.
India has always been a challenger to China. Its proximity to the US as also its close partnerships in organizations which threaten Chinese power in Asia make it a suitable target. If China manages to subdue India and change status quo in Ladakh, either with or without employment of military power, it could send a strong global message. A strong military counter deployment by India would make any such attempt of subduing by China difficult.
Taiwan has always been considered a renegade state by China. Under Xi Jinping, China has attempted to isolate Taiwan, forcing it out of global forums, as well as increasing military and economic coercion to compel it to amend its policy into one of voluntary reunification, at some future date. The re-election of Tsai Ing-wen, in Jan this year, with a strong majority, ended this Chinese dream. This has led to China resorting to military threats against Taiwan.
Li Zuocheng, member of the Chinese Military Commission, stated in end May, ‘If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions,’ adding ‘we do not promise to abandon the use of force, and reserve the option to take all necessary measures, to stabilise and control the situation in the Taiwan Strait.’
Chinese aircraft have repeatedly violated Taiwanese airspace, while its aircraft carrier led fleet has sailed in its waters on multiple occasions in recent times. China has also been conducting amphibious exercises along its coast displaying an intent to invade Taiwan. Its Southern Command appears to be gearing up for operations. It has also been broadcasting its offensive actions against Taiwan.
An article in The Global Times of 26th Jun stated, ‘For the eighth time in June, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) reportedly sent military aircraft to Taiwan’s southwestern airspace,’ adding, ‘(these flights are launched) with the aim of gathering military information from Taiwan, and suppressing potential US and Japanese reinforcements coming from the Miyako Strait and Bashi Channel.’ In the first three weeks of Jun, Taiwan was compelled to scramble its aircraft four times to chase away Chinese military aircraft approaching the island.
Taiwan is a supporter for the ongoing agitation in Hong Kong, an action which has adversely impacted China. The Taiwanese President, Tsai Ing-wen, stated in May, ‘Taiwan will even more proactively perfect and forge ahead with relevant support work, and provide Hong Kong’s people with necessary assistance.’ China, on the other hand, has accused supporters of Taiwan independence of colluding with protesters in Hong Kong. In case the scenario in Hong Kong worsens, then Chinese focus will meander towards Taiwan. It is considering this factor, that the US has deployed its aircraft carrier led fleets in the region.
Against India, China has been involved in a standoff along the LAC in multiple locations. The standoff was planned and conceived to be prolonged. Its troops moved in prepared for physical violence, just below levels of firing, thus displaying that it has yet to violate the multiple agreements signed between the two nations. It has accepted talks to resolve the incursions, however, is in no hurry, while reports of build-up continue.
The Chinese force levels in Ladakh are currently not intended for large scale military operations. How would this change with passage of time remains a mute question. The Chinese intention currently appears to be to tie down Indian forces and the Indian government from actively supporting the US. Its propaganda machinery and comments by its stakeholders including the Chinese Ambassador in Delhi are in same tune. They keep mentioning resolution of the current standoffs, with no timetable.
If China is seeking military action for Xi Jinping to counter internal threats and strengthen his position, then they could be aimed at one of these two nations, where Chinese armed forces are openly displaying an offensive character, while keeping the other at bay. While Taiwan may not directly jump to back India, however, it could provide the US requisite support to enhance pressure on China. India, on the other hand could join the US in activating the QUAD militarily to offset Chinese military actions against Taiwan. Hence, China may seek to pressure one nation, while it acts offensively against the other.
The US, in response to China’s provocations is redeploying part of its forces, currently in Germany into the Indo-Pacific. Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State mentioned that China’s threats to India and South East Asia were amongst the main reasons for the US to reduce its troops in Europe. He stated, ‘We are going to make sure we are postured appropriately to counter the PLA. We think that this is the challenge of our time and we are going to make sure we have resources in place to do that.’
Alternatively, this pressure on India and Taiwan could also be aimed at broadcasting a global message. The non-official message which China would be attempting to convey is that the world is bipolar and regions of influence between the US and China are distinctly divided as also China would not desire any interference by the US in its own zone of influence, where it seeks to be a dominant power, which is the Indo-Pacific. It has hinted that if it decides to act, the US may not find requisite support to stop China.
It is proving this by simultaneously challenging all its adversaries in the region. By adopting economic measures with nations in Europe and Australia it is conveying its power to challenge US hegemony in regions where the US traditionally dominates, thereby announcing that it possesses economic might to challenge US domination.
Intelligence may provide all inputs, less intentions of the adversary. China has hidden its intentions well. Its employment of military and economic power against adversaries spread across the region is not a simple response to threats. It is a well evaluated strategy, with a predetermined end state. Whether the ultimate objective is India or Taiwan remains to be seen. Neither nation can let its guard down. Simultaneously, if it continues with its posturing, then it is seeking to convey a strong global message. Its true intentions would flow with time.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army