Elections in Kashmir and Pakistan NAAD December 2020

Elections in Kashmir and Pakistan NAAD December 2020

Elections in Kashmir and Pakistan NAAD December 2020

          The encounter last week, wherein four Pakistani terrorists were eliminated at Nagrota, while attempting to infiltrate into the valley from Samba, with large quantities of arms and ammunition displays desperation within Pakistan. Surge in ceasefire violations, targeting pro-Indian civilian population in Uri and Tangdar, increased attempts at infiltration, all failing, has added to Pakistan’s desperation. They see their Kashmir strategy going up in smoke.

As per reports only 20-25 Pak trained terrorists have managed to infiltrate into the valley this year, most of whom have been killed, leaving most terrorist groups leaderless. Total terrorists eliminated this year has crossed the 200 mark, most being locals. With no funds being inducted through Hawala, overground workers have failed to invoke violence and incite fresh recruits needed to keep terrorism alive. Violence to support terrorists trapped in encounters has receded. Even areas which were pro-Pakistan are now witnessing a change. 

Pakistan releasing the dossier, blaming India for supporting terrorism within their country, is aimed at enhancing pressure on India, which has also failed. In the dossier, it blames India for ceasefire violations and targeting of civilians. It was hoping that Chinese actions in Ladakh would push India onto the defensive, but that too failed adding to their woes. India has not only held the Chinese at bay but gained advantage by claiming the Kailash Ridge. To display its confidence, India is not rushing for talks or accepting limited withdrawal with China and is prepared to continue with the standoff through the winters.

          There is no doubt that Pakistan is aware that time for infiltration in the valley is fast running out as winters are setting in. With snow falling, tracking sneaking terrorists becomes easier. Hard Indian retaliation, targeting terrorist camps and supporting Pakistan posts, with little concern for collateral damage has pushed them to the brink. They are simultaneously unwilling to risk any major operation which could lead to an Indian counterstrike.

Any counterstrike in Pakistan would adversely impact the power and control of the Pak army, which is already facing intense internal pressure from the People’s Democratic Movement and other rising protests across the country. There are demands from every quarter for the army to return to barracks, which it has so far managed to stall. In case, it is embarrassed by an Indian strike, it would either be compelled to counter or face internal political humiliation. Comments by Ayaz Sadiq, in the national assembly, projecting panic within the Pak military and political leadership post the Balakote strike, continues to haunt the Pak leadership.  

Aware that it can no longer play the nuclear card, the deep state is being careful in its approach. It has realised that its global support base has reduced with even close allies including Saudi Arabia and UAE singing the Indian song. China is already stalled in Ladakh and would be unwilling to enhance pressure to support Pakistan. Economically, Pakistan is in dire states. Its oil reserves cannot even sustain a few days of operations. The same is the state with its ammunition stocks.   

          What is hurting Pakistan even more is the announcement and conduct of the District Development Council (DDC) elections in the Union Territory. The announcement of elections displays the confidence within the Indian government that the situation is near normal and terrorism is on the wane. To add to Pakistan’s woes is that their favourite proxy, the Hurriyat, is currently in a state of near collapse, with no ability to either enforce violence, protests or bandhs. Its silence since the abrogation of article 370 indicates this.

With increased surrenders of local terrorists, their reduced lifespan after joining terrorist groups, shortage of arms and ammunition available in the valley displays Pakistan’s failing strategy. Its attempts to employ drones to drop weapons in the region have met with limited success. Narcoterrorism is equally ineffective as monitoring is effective.

          To add to Pakistan’s misery is the conditions created by the central government leading to the participation of all major political parties in these forthcoming DDC elections. The PAGD (Political Alliance for Gupkar Declaration), a grouping of 11 valley based political parties have realised that if they do not participate, they would lose control of the state to the BJP ending their political future.  

While the PAGD continues to rant on restoration of article 370, this election would determine their fate. The elections would be a battle between the BJP and all other political parties. For the globe, it would display return of democratic process in the valley and put paid to Pak’s cries of resistance and forced incarceration of the region.

Victory by the BJP would indicate that the population has rejected Pakistan and accepted abrogation of Article 370. It would end Pakistan’s claim to the region as also prove that the valley is peaceful, and the population unwilling to support terrorism. This scenario is a nightmare for Pakistan. Hence, it would make every attempt to stall the elections. The latest encounter is a desperate attempt by Pakistan to push in terrorists to disrupt the peaceful election process currently underway. Every election announced for the valley will be challenged by Pakistan. It must be made to lose.

If India is to change the global narrative on Kashmir, then the election process, commencing from the DDC and moving onwards, must be launched and conducted violence free. Pakistan would make every attempt to disrupt them as their Kashmir strategy depends on violence, intimidation and terrorism, all of which are waning. The game is on and India cannot afford to lose. It has gained the upper hand and it must ensure it does not lose it.