Is Pakistan serious on peace (English version) Amar Ujala 01 Apr 2021
Is Pakistan serious on peace? (English version) Amar Ujala 01 Apr 2021
Speaking at the India Economic Conclave, General Naravane, the army chief stated, ‘In the whole month of March, not a single shot has been fired on the LoC barring an odd incident. This is the first time in 4-5 years that the LoC has been silent that really bodes well for the future.’ The silence of the guns along the LOC followed the declaration of ceasefire, announced by the two DGMO’s on 23 Feb this year. It continues to hold and has come as a major respite to those living close to the borders on both sides. Though this is a small step, however, could be a harbinger for peace across the region.
Multiple sources have been credited for this decision, most likely the result of multiple rounds of backchannel diplomacy. With this being backed by the Pak army chief, it is likely that the Pak army was part of the discussions. General Naravane stated the possible reasons for Pakistan’s acceptance included, ‘the situation on their western border with Afghanistan, things are not very rosy there. The threat of the FATF that hangs over their head. They want to get out of the grey list and third is their domestic compulsions.’ There could be many more including moving into a possible debt trap, a failing CPEC, crashing medical care etc. Most importantly, the Pak army, which rejected all peace overtures by their political leadership earlier is currently backing the ceasefire.
Reports also state that the UAE has been the mediator as it maintains close ties with both, Pakistan and India. There is no doubt, that the UAE and Saudi Arabia have regularly warned Pakistan to change its Kashmir policy. The failure of the OIC in discussing Kashmir or even moving a resolution on it indicates their anger on Pakistan.
Pakistan’s stubbornness to heed their warnings led to both nations demanding repayment of loans granted to it to enable tiding over its financial crisis. A report of 30 March in the Pak newspaper ‘Dawn’, states that the Saudi Prince has invited Imran to Riyadh. This could be a gesture for Pak accepting the ceasefire and seeking to enhance ties with India.
The ceasefire is a tactical step and is essential for displaying sincerity and reducing trust deficit which exists on both sides. Its continuation through the summers would display Pak’s intent. This tactical confidence building step would open doors for strategic resolution of pending issues. Both sides continue to maintain their core issues, which for India is terrorism and for Pakistan is Kashmir. While India has been insisting on Pakistan stopping support to terrorism, Pakistan has been insisting that India create the right conditions for talks in Kashmir. The positive aspect has been that rhetoric on both sides has reduced.
In a further display of improved ties, the Pak cabinet discussed resuming trade with India currently for procuring cotton and sugar. All trade had stopped after India abrogated Article 370.
However, these are early days. What could possibly be the way forward? The issues between the two nations are immense. These commence from restoring High Commissioners to trade, transit, sports and resolving core issues of terrorism, Kashmir, Sir Creek and Siachen. At the Islamabad Security Dialogue, Imran Khan stated, ‘Without regional peace and improved trade ties with neighbouring countries, Pakistan cannot capitalise on its geostrategic location.’ He hinted at opening doors for linking India to Central Asia.
Opening the road corridor, apart from enhancing trust, would be a major revenue earner for Pak. It would result in India using some part of the CPEC, providing Pak with funds to repay loans of China. It could also open doors for closed projects including TAPI (Turkmenistan- Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline and the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, from both of which Pakistan would earn huge subsidies. The recent talks under the Indus Water Treaty displayed that if the two nations set their enmity aside, they could both benefit.
With decades of mistrust and backstabbing, no government, on either side, is willing to sit directly on the negotiating table and discuss core issues. Neither side wants to enter into talks and subsequently declare them as failures. Further, doubts exist on whether the ceasefire would remain backed by future Pak army chiefs, as Bajwa retires in Nov 22. The next in line is the current DG ISI, also a select pick by General Bajwa.
Backchannel diplomacy would play a major role in pushing talks forward. These would determine issues which can be resolved easily and on which there are minimum disagreements. These could include restoration of High Commissioners, trade, business and sports. The question remains as to which nation would take the first step in this direction. A few such agreements, if reached, could also open doors for India accepting Pakistan’s invitation for the SAARC summit. This could provide Pakistan with some diplomatic mileage.
Discussions on contentious issues must come must later. Those are likely to be slow and laborious as neither side would be willing to display any change in their demands. The other option could be to consider the views of Xi Jinping, when he stated that resolution of the LAC should be left to the next generation. He implied that with both nations firm in their views a quick resolution is unlikely and hence should be delayed.
Baby steps have been taken by acceptance of the ceasefire. Its continuation through the summers would enhance confidence on both sides. The Indian army chief stated on 30th March, ‘for terrorism to come down, terrorist camps have to be dismantled. Only when snow melts will we know how serious Pakistan is.’ As the trust deficit reduces, the nations should, via backchannel diplomacy, seek solutions to smaller and non-contentious issues. Implementing them would build requisite confidence for enhancing ties.
Enmity between India and Pak has continued for decades. It is time for peace. With the Pak army backing the move, there are hopes that the region would witness a long-awaited peace.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army