Turmoil in the neighbourhood The Excelsior 31 Aug 2024
The month of August has historically been a tumultuous month for the subcontinent. India and Pakistan attained their freedom this month, almost eight decades ago, post intense violence. The enmity remains. It was on 15th Aug 2021 that the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan. On the same day in 1975, Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, the founder of Bangladesh, was assassinated in Dacca and this year in the same month, his daughter, Sheikh Hasina, was ousted from power and forced to seek refuge in India.
While the month may be a coincidence, however the region is currently witnessing a turbulent period. South Asian nations face internal instability and economic shortcomings, largely due to their own fault lines. India remains a possible beacon of hope.
Instability in Pakistan is nothing new. The army has always ruled from the backseat, overthrowing governments at will, preventing any political leader from gaining a foothold and becoming popular. It has played musical chairs with the PM’s post right from the beginning. The army seeks to keep Imran Khan from the public eye, while he continues to remain the most popular leader, who possesses the ability to throw Pak into chaos.
Its western provinces, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan, are up in revolt buoyed with the presence of the Taliban in Afghanistan. The Pak army battles powerful insurgencies in both provinces. Internally, political instability alongside a financial crisis continues. The nation is surviving on IMF largesse and could be arm twisted at will by the US, hence is forced to toe a careful line.
The raison-d’etre for the Pak army’s budget, manpower and survival is its enmity with India, especially Kashmir, through which waters essential for its survival, originate. It can never permit Islamabad settling disputes with India. Neither can it let Kashmir be free from violence and terrorism. Hence, despite all threats and countermeasures there will always remain some terrorist activities in J and K. Indo-Pak tensions will remain, especially as Pak is buoyed by its proximity to China.
The Afghan-Pak combination enhancing terrorism in Kashmir, which was a concern when the Taliban gained power in 2021, has been offset by improved Indo-Afghan relations. India has provided aid to the country as also continues to engage with it. New Delhi’s refusal to provide shelter to members of the Ashraf Ghani government convinced Kabul of its neutrality. Thus, while Afghanistan refuses to comment on Indo-Pak subjects, it continues to back anti-Pak terrorist groups.
Bangladesh, which was a beacon of good ties with India is currently in turmoil. While both nations cannot ignore the other due to long borders and commonality in culture, the rise of Islamists or an anti-India government in the future can be a matter of concern. It may be early days since the Mohamad Yusuf interim government assumed control, however, India will need to keep a close watch. The Bangladesh army will continue to dominate the political scenario from the backseat.
The current protests in Bangladesh on India being responsible for floods in the country as also enhanced targeting of minorities is possibly an indication of the future. It will be a test for Indian diplomacy to navigate the choppy waters in Dacca in the coming days.
The rise of radical Islam in Pakistan and Bangladesh, both sharing common borders with India, remains a matter of concern. The possibility of it spilling into India and destabilizing the country is high.
India has been able to recalibrate its ties with Maldives and Sri Lanka, despite growing Chinese influence. The recent successful visit of Jaishankar to Maldives displays this change. President Muizzu stated, ‘India has always been one of the closest allies and invaluable partners, facilitating and providing aid whenever Maldives has needed it.’ Were these just a diplomatic comment or sincere is to be seen.
The visit of the new Nepalese Foreign minister, Arzu Rana Deuba, to Delhi last week indicated improved relations between the two nations, despite Nepalese PM, KP Sharma Oli, preferring Beijing over New Delhi. There is hope that Nepalese citizens would recommence joining the Indian army under the Agnipath scheme, reestablishing grassroot level ties.
The raging civil war in Myanmar is impacting India’s North East. Myanmar border residents, many of whom have linkages on the Indian side cross into India for safety. Some terrorist groups operating in the North East have their bases in Myanmar. This scenario is likely to persist for the present.
India and China, both competitors, have been competing to draw countries in South Asia into their folds. Simultaneously, India-China bilateral ties have stalled since the Galwan clash of 2020. Increased deployment continues along the borders. Economically, despite suggestions, India continues to restrict Chinese investments in the country.
At the same time, India is looking to benefit from the ‘China plus one strategy.’ Militarily, unless India is able to develop a significant deterrence capability, including nuclear, the Chinese threat will loom large. Added to it would be concern of a China-Pak collusion.
The South Asian region is also economically impacted by ongoing conflicts in Europe and West Asia. India is currently the only stable country whose growing economic and military power enables it to support those who seek to partner it. It is also the nation the world looks towards for containing maritime threats in the Indian Ocean Region as also challenging China’s hegemonistic designs in the Far East.
The Indo-Japan 2+2 dialogue summed up India’s role in the region. The joint statement mentioned that the two nations ‘welcomed the possibilities to further enhance the bilateral security and defence cooperation following the National Security Strategy of Japan issued in December 2022 and recognized such cooperation as an important pillar of the Japan-India Special Strategic and Global Partnership.’ India-Japan cooperation is solely intended to counter China.
The emerging scenario in the subcontinent necessitates India pay close attention to changing dynamics. Growing instability in the immediate neighbourhood can overflow into India. Increased Chinese presence as also footprints will add to security concerns. If India is to stay strong, resilient as also grow economically, its armed forces have to remain strong, its diplomacy relevant and its intelligence agencies on their toes. Laxity in any one can be costly.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army