Pakistan fails to read the tealeaves The Excelsior 31 Jan 2025
Pakistan fails to read the tealeaves The Excelsior 31 Jan 2025
Pakistan media was aghast that the first meeting conducted by the new Trump administration was that of the QUAD and the first bilateral was with India, with Marc Rubio, the new US Secretary of State, meeting Dr Jaishankar. The Dawn in an article discussing the meeting mentioned, ‘Following the inauguration of Donald Trump, India has flexed its muscle in the US, with its foreign minister being among the first to meet the newly-minted secretary of state.’ It added, ‘Rubio’s pivot toward India has raised concerns for Pakistan.’
Dr Jaishankar in a press conference in the US, post his meetings in the US, was questioned on resumption of trade with Pakistan. On this he mentioned that since it was Pakistan which broke trade relations, the onus of restoring them lies on Pakistan. He added that India will not take any step in that direction. The Pakistan foreign office in its comments stated that there are no plans for resumption of trade. India’s global stature is on the rise, while Pakistan’s continues sinking.
Pakistan is aware that the US shift towards India will have significant implications on its relations with Pakistan. There is a belief that there would be little engagement between Washington and Islamabad while pressure would mount on Pakistan to ease its dependency and ties with China. The military aid which Pakistan obtained from the Biden administration would no longer be repeated.
Pakistan’s Centre for International Strategic Studies organized a round table discussion to access its future ties with the US, post the arrival of Trump in the White House. The participants were former senior members of its foreign service, including their former foreign affairs minister. They believed that the Trump administration would view Pakistan through the lens of India and China, ignoring its strategic location.
A media report quoted participants highlighting ‘New Delhi strategically leveraging perceived threat from China to strengthen its position, secured advanced Western military equipment and forged closer ties with Washington.’ The seminar concluded with the view that while the US continues to deepen its strategic alignment with India, meaningful engagement with Pakistan is unlikely.
There is also a misconstrued belief in Pakistan that the Israeli lobby in the US is pressurizing the government to sanction them for their missile program. Added to this is that the US sanctioned entities involved with Pakistan’s missile program while ignoring India’s. Islamabad’s only hope is that with the Taliban in Afghanistan, it may continue engaging militarily with Rawalpindi.
What has irked Pakistan further is that Trump never mentioned the country even once throughout his campaigning. The Friday Times in an editorial mentioned, ‘the permanent threat to Pakistan in the US will always be the influential lobbyists who campaign against the country and its economic interests. These lobbyists are capable of changing and shaping US policies towards Pakistan.’
There was no invite to Pak for Donald Trump’s swearing in. It was represented by its ambassador to the US, as is the custom. Its interior minister, Mohsin Naqvi, travelled to the US, hoping for an invite but failed. He met a US senator for a photo-op, who immediately thereafter tweeted ‘Free Imran Khan.’ This was an embarrassment to Islamabad, which immediately disowned the visit, claiming it to be private. Naqvi was followed throughout his visit by members of Imran’s PTI.
Added was Richard Grenell, the Trump administration’s special envoy, openly criticizing the treatment of Imran Khan and urging his release. Imran Khan’s PTI has been briefing new members of the US Congress to challenge the establishment of military courts for the 07 May protests, under which Imran Khan has been jailed. Pakistan has commenced on the wrong foot with the new administration. Its internal squabbles are now being played out in Washington.
In desperation to contain a rising India, Islamabad is attempting to exploit Bangladesh territory to provide a boost to the sagging insurgencies in India’s North East. An ISI four-member delegation visited Bangladesh recently. Officially, the visit was slated as intending to build an intelligence sharing network, but it would be far more. Added would be the presence of Pak army officials training, or more likely indoctrinating, Bangladesh armed forces.
For Pakistan, which has been known to stab its allies in the back, as it did with the US, while it was embroiled in Afghanistan, the writing is clear. The limited importance which Pak had in the US vanished with NATO withdrawal from Kabul. Imran Khan was received by Trump, in his earlier tenure, only because Washington still needed Pak to broker a ceasefire to permit an organized withdrawal. It does not any longer, hence Biden throughout his tenure never spoke even once to the Pak leadership. Currently Pakistan is considered in the same bracket as China, a hostile state.
Pakistan’s Achilles heel is Afghanistan and its western provinces. These have the ability to suck Islamabad financially as also draw in large numbers of Pak troops. All attempts by Pak to compel Kabul to toe its line, including by supporting the ISIS against the Taliban as also attempting to subjugate its economy, have come to naught. Currently, its main adversary is the Taliban, rather than India. The LoC is largely silent while the Durand Line is active.
While Pakistan threatens Kabul with military attacks and economic blockades, India provides it aid and support, both with foodgrains and medicines. Hence, any attempts by Pak to ignite India’s North East exploiting Bangladesh, would be returned with interest from across the Durand Line.
As India’s influence in Washington would grow, Pakistan’s would recede. India is the nation in demand, while Pakistan struggles to stay afloat. The fact is that there is little to gain from Pakistan, a nation now in its 25th loan from the IMF as also facing macroeconomic instability, apart from political and internal security problems.
Its only importance remains in the fact that it is the only Islamic nuclear power. Military engagement is only aimed at ensuring that Pakistan’s nukes do not fall into terrorist hands, possibly the only nuclear power which raises such a concern. Hence, for Washington, Rawalpindi is more important than Islamabad, which is why it is least concerned about the political turmoil in Pakistan including the incarceration of Imran Khan.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army