India emerges on top Amar Ujala 12 May 2025
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India emerges on top Amar Ujala 12 May 2025
India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire. The same has come into effect. Talks between the two DGMO’s (Director General Military Operations) will soon take place, possibly at the Attari border. Their discussion will only focus on maintaining the ceasefire and other co-related aspects. No other subject would be raised. Further talks, if any, will be at the political level. The last such meeting between the DGMOs was in Dec 2013, when India had targeted Pakistan hard after it regularly violated the ceasefire. The ceasefire then agreed to, remained in place till the current crisis.
The current meeting follows a few days of intense non-kinetic operations by both sides. Most of Pakistan’s missiles and drones were destroyed while Indian missiles had an almost free run. Panic began setting in Pak after India targeted a collection of its airfields, rendering them temporarily redundant. In addition, a few Pak aircraft were also destroyed on the ground.
Pakistan had been claiming that it had only engaged military targets, however, the reality was vastly different. Pakistan’s missiles and drones hit residential areas impacting innocent civilians, compelling India to respond by targeting their drone launch pads. India has largely avoided civilian casualties.
To sustain any conflict, essential pre-requisites are economy, oil and ammunition reserves. It is here that Pakistan lags. There are reports that its oil reserves have depleting rapidly and it has restricted sale of oil to its public. The Indian navy, dominating the Indian Ocean, could impose a blockade of Pak ports, preventing movement of ships carrying oil.
Further, a nation in debt, like Pakistan, would sink further when engaged in conflict, making recovery difficult. Middle Eastern states, which earlier supplied them with unlimited oil, are no longer doing so. In case kinetic operations commence, Pak may not be able to sustain the conflict for long.
Simultaneously, Pakistan is bound by its ideology. It has through its history projected itself as superior to India, at least to its masses, while its leaders, both military and civil, are aware of their shortcomings. This despite Pakistan losing every conflict with India. General Asim Munir’s statements to his overseas audience, where he defended the two-nation theory, just prior to Pahalgam, is a case in point. He was then playing to the gallery.
Hence, while it may be paying a high price for its attempted misadventures, it must continue to display a strong resolve and convince its people of victory. In 1971, until the day of surrender, Pak media kept insisting that they were winning the war.
Aware that it faced losses on all fronts, Pakistan has begun enhancing its disinformation game. This is intended to impact morale of the common Indian, while boosting that of their populace, who would rarely be aware of the truth, especially when their media is tightly controlled by the army.
For most folks, social media is the source of news. Most news channels also base their inputs on social media as government sources release factual data only at regular intervals, while media networks seek sensational inputs which benefit media ratings.
Inputs projected by one media network spreads to others. On occasions news channels have been compelled to retract statements as these have turned out to be false. It is here that truth gets blurred, adding to confusion amongst the masses.
Social media influencers on both sides spread what they believe to be true, and at times what it believes the public needs for confidence. Pakistan has traditionally taken the lead over India in information warfare. It has an organized fake media network, controlled by their army media cell (DGISPR) while India, being a democracy, has no organized institution.
Pakistan’s DGISPR has hundreds of interns whose sole role is to spread fake news, highlighting success of their armed forces and failure of India. Pak army chiefs have regularly interacted with these interns. This has been their approach over the years.
Many of their handles have Indian names, adding to confusion for the Indian reader. It is only by scrutinizing past posts of these handles does the reality sink in, which is generally never done. Each message, pushed by a single handle, backed by many, adds authenticity and becomes confusing to the common social media follower seeking latest inputs.
A number of Chinese twitter accounts are emerging on X, backing Pakistan in the current conflict. Chinese handles, including their official government mouthpieces like the Global Times, apart from projecting Islamabad’s views and inputs of so-called successes are desperate to cover failures of Beijing supplied equipment to Pakistan, including their famed HQ-9P and HQ-16.
Once failure of Chinese equipment is highlighted, these accounts jump into the debate, defending their products. Their claims of destroying India’s S 400 anti-missile system, denied by the Indian armed forces, is a case in point. The reality remains that Chinese equipment has failed in the fog of war.
It could neither detect nor destroy a single missile launched by India. Even drones launched by India reached deep within Pak, missed by Chinese air defence systems, whereas the contrary happened with Pak fired drones and missiles. The combination of India’s domestic air defence systems and the S 400 has been a resounding success. Shortcomings of Chinese systems will be of major benefit to Taiwan and the US, apart from India.
In the future the battle for media space will only grow. India needs to seriously coordinate its actions in this field.
Overall, India targeted Pakistan in multiple domains. Apart from projecting Pakistan’s support to terrorism by displaying pictures of their army alongside global terrorists, it impacted Islamabad in different spheres. Medicines, which costed less because APIs were exported by India would now be costlier, pinching the masses.
With the World Bank refusing to intervene in the IWT (Indus Water Treaty), Pakistan could face the brunt of water shortages, especially in the upcoming Kharif season. Further, even if the ceasefire continues, India will refuse to keep the IWT at current levels, especially as it now has global support. Pakistan’s water supply will always be under the Indian thumb.
Pak made an error in targeting innocent Indian tourists. The loss to it would be strategic. The price it will pay will impact its economy for generations. The ceasefire will hold as Pak has already paid a heavy price.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army