Trump cornered in Iran The Statesman 24 Mar 2026
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Trump cornered in Iran The Statesman 24 Mar 2026
The war in Iran continues unabated. Trump’s initial intent of eliminating the Iranian leadership, resulting in regime change has failed. Iran remains defiant. He subsequently amended his war aims to include, ‘degrading or destroying Iran’s military, its defence infrastructure and its nuclear weapons programme.’ The war has damaged not only the US, Israeli and Iranian economies but also that of the globe alongside oil infrastructure of the Middle East.
Iran has no option but to target similar facilities which are hit on its soil in the region, military for military, oil for oil, as a deterrent, thereby displaying its unwillingness to surrender. Hence, there is no guarantee that with the conclusion of the conflict, oil and gas prices would return to pre-war levels.
Damages to oil infrastructure to the Middle East will ensure global oil prices remain high. If the Iranian regime survives, which it should, it is a matter of time before tensions rebuild. The US will no longer remain a preferred security provider in the Middle East and alternative alliances could emerge. The region would remain divided for a long time. Relations with Israel too would remain distant.
Trump’s much announced Gaza peace plan is as good as dead as those who were to fund reconstruction would now concentrate on managing their damages. Just boots on ground in Gaza would mean nothing. Gazans would remain at the mercy of Israel. This is just what Netanyahu wanted and Trump played right into his hands.
The closing of the Straits of Hormuz by Iran has broken the myth of US military power. US naval power, considered the most formidable on the planet, has admitted that it alone cannot ensure its opening without casualties and being drawn into a deeper conflict, which it seeks to avoid. Placing boots on the ground, including the Marine Expeditionary Force would imply additional casualties which Trump can ill afford. His popularity is sinking and would only worsen. It is now an ego issue with Trump. If he does not open it, Iran will claim victory. If he attempts to do so with military power, losses could be high. Hence, a collection of threats to Iran.
Trump believed his NATO allies would readily join him in ensuring the functionality of the Hormuz straits. It has not happened. In desperation Trump termed NATO members as ‘cowards.’ He attempted to involve NATO by invoking Article 5, as in Afghanistan, claiming US bases in the Middle East are under attack. Only six European nations, Czech Republic, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Lithuania and Latvia, responded. The rest mentioned in a joint statement that they would take ‘appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage,’ without specifying what it implies.
A lot has changed since Afghanistan. The primary reason has been the growth of Radical Islam in Europe. France and Germany amongst others cancelled public New year celebrations last year fearing terrorist strikes, while Christmas markets opened with additional security. Memories of 2023-24 where there were attacks on Christmas markets, haunted governments. Joining the US in the war against Iran could enhance internal fissures.
Another reason has been Trump insulting NATO all through his tenure. Now in a fix, he wants them to be involved in regions where he himself fears to tread, placing boots on Iran’s Kharg island. Even worse for the US has been the loss of 16 aircraft, including F 35s damaged by Iran, breaking the myth of its stealth capabilities.
Further, the US entered the conflict not because it was under threat but due to prodding by Israel and without taking NATO into confidence. Expecting them to jump to his demands is illogical. Even Trump’s Asian allies, Australia, South Korea and Japan have avoided getting involved. China too turned down the US request.
Iran has conveyed that it will not succumb to US-Israel power. It was prepared for a conflict though hoped to deflect it with talks. That phase has now passed. With every passing day, the regime gains confidence in stalling the US. Its populace, who were expected to rise in anger, have not done so. Air power, no matter how effective, can never enforce a surrender or a regime change. Boots on the ground are not an option.
A battered Trump is now inventing victory where it does not exist. The world is watching and is aware that he is lying. Trump failed to achieve his initial objectives and now he has changed them. The Hezbollah, Iraqi militia and Houthis continue supporting Iran, though their military power has diminished. The Israeli economy has been battered with years of conflict. Trump is aware that he has been led by the nose into a war which could have been avoided, but has no one to blame but himself. His comments on social media display frustration on being globally rejected.
Trump never expected Iran to apply reverse pressure on the US by attacking oil and military facilities in the Middle East, raising global prices. While these nations would want the US to continue targeting Iran, none would be willing to get involved or utilize their military power. In fact, Gulf nations are now playing the US and Israel to their advantage.
Russia is gaining as its economy gets a boost with increased sale of oil. The impact of years of sanctions are being nullified. It continues providing intelligence inputs to Tehran, adding to US discomfort, but Washington can do nothing. It was doing the same with Ukraine. The boot is on the other foot. China is also gaining as Iranian oil is now available without sanctions and the US is getting bogged down in possibly another Afghanistan.
Meanwhile nations across the globe face shortfalls of oil and gas. None is willing to get involved. For them priority is managing their population’s energy demands. Most maintain silence or comment on attacks on Gulf nations, as maximum resources flow from there, Iran is alone.
Tehran is aware that neither Russia nor China would come to its aid. It has come to a stage where destruction matters little but surrendering would signal disaster. It is fighting with its back to the wall and hence would strike anywhere in retaliation. Trump can only watch and wade deeper into a conflict which he should have avoided from the beginning. Wonder who is playing the US, Israel or Iran or both.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army