UAS and missile warfare cannot enforce surrenders Raksha Anirveda 25 Aug 2026
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UAS and missile warfare cannot enforce surrenders Raksha Anirveda 25 Aug 2026
There are lessons being drawn on changing nature of warfare based on employment of UAS (Unmanned Aerial Systems) in ongoing conflicts. These include imaginative use of UAS, which impacted movement on the battlefield as also supply of logistics in the Ukraine war. Most innovations by Ukraine are to find answers to shortfalls in manpower on the battlefront. Use of mechanized columns by Russia have almost come to a standstill. Russia, in addition to use of UAS, also employed missiles targeting infrastructure as also civilian population across Ukraine. There are reports that Ukraine is developing its own ballistic missiles, capable of targeting Moscow, which could be inducted into operations by the end of the year.
Ukraine developed its unique anti-UAS system termed as Sky Map, which includes a command-and-control software dashboard, with integrated acoustic sensors and radar data, based on AI, to spot and disrupt mass drone attacks. This has been deployed in multiple Middle East nations including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan during the Iran war. They are also being utilized by the US. These offset the use of costly missiles to target cheap drones. Every nation, including India, is working on near-similar development.
Even the US-Iran conflict has been air dominated with the US employing air power and missiles while Iran responds with missiles and UAS, as its airpower has been largely destroyed. Despite weeks of bombing, the war has witnessed no end, with negotiations faltering. Trump’s comments on ongoing negotiations, threatening immense strikes as also that the Straits of Hormuz are open, carry little weight. The stalemate continues, while global oil prices fluctuate on Trump’s comments. The war has now shifted to the economic domain.
In the Ukraine conflict, the current strategy adopted by the Ukrainian military is to target Russia’s population, its oil infrastructure as also warehouses of Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer, with the intention of forcing Putin to the negotiating table, due to economic constraints. Ukraine has thus far reduced Russia’s refining capabilities by almost 40 percent, with fuel pumps restricting sale of oil. There have been civilian casualties amongst the Russian population due to Ukrainian strikes.
As per Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the attacks are designed at disrupting military supplies, creating discontent amongst the population and impacting the Russian economy by placing pressure on banks which have provided loans to Wildberries. It is hoping that this could push Russia towards negotiations. Russia recently ousted its chief economic advisor of the national development bank for mentioning that the Russian economy was being damaged by the Ukraine war.
In the month of July alone, Russia launched 376 missiles and over 5000 drones on Ukraine. Lack of interceptors implied most missiles hit their targets. Russia is moving from attrition warfare to coercive state degradation wearing down civil endurance. As winter approaches, the targeting will shift to critical infrastructure, causing anger and unrest amongst the population. No nation has criticized Russia or Ukraine for deliberately targeting civilian population or infrastructure, which in reality constitutes war crimes, legitimizing the same for future conflicts.
As per reports, Russia is working towards producing 1000 drones a day as also 100 ballistic missiles a month, way above the interceptors being provided by the west, most of which are being diverted to handle Iranian missiles in the Middle East. Both sides place riders for negotiations especially as the frontlines remain stable with hardly any movement. Both have been targeting cities causing civilian casualties.
While Europe largely stands behind Ukraine, providing it the resources it can, North Korea is firmly behind Russia. North Korean troops, artillery shells and missiles are being despatched to Russia. Russia’s current drone industry grew largely from Iran’s Shaheed drones.
Warfare is also shifting from land to maritime and economy. Ukraine targets Russian merchant shipping, its Black Sea fleet and energy infrastructure employing sea drones and missiles. Russia counters with strikes on Ukrainian ports, grain terminals and merchant vessels. The casualties are largely seafarers from multiple nations, again innocent victims.
Odessa, which Russia has been targeting impacts Ukraine’s military logistics and economy. Russia’s campaign on Odessa picked up pace coinciding with the harvest season. Attacks on merchant shipping has driven up global wheat prices. Ukraine has made an offer to Russia to stop attacks on civilian ships. Russia has yet to respond.
A similar action is happening in Hormuz. Iran blocks the straits for global shipping, while the US prevents ships from arriving and leaving Iranian ports. Ships which ignore Iranian directions are targeted. Added is the Houthis preventing Saudi ships from utilizing the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Southern Red Sea. They are utilizing drones and missiles to target Saudi vessels as also their oil infrastructure.
The lessons which emerge from reliance on drones and missiles is that while the use of UAS and missiles may hold current frontlines, they will never end a conflict, nor bring about negotiations or surrender. Ukraine can never bring Russia on the negotiating table, but would impose caution. Similarly, Russia cannot force Ukraine to give up territory it demands solely by an aerial battle, though it can impact national morale by targeting energy infrastructure prior to winters.
The next lesson is that nations must possess capabilities to mass produce UAS as also cheap counter UAS capability. Employing costly missiles to target cheap UAS’s is not the long-term solution. Missiles, especially hypersonic, with accuracy, are the future of warfare. As in Operation Sindoor, they can effectively cause damage to strategic assets. Countering them is equally essential.
The role of ground troops as the final deciding factor in a conflict will not change, despite any quantum of technology, especially where territory is at dispute. However, the manner of their employment will change. They would need to be far more dispersed and protected from UAS’s, with operations launched over a vast area. No adversary will be able to cover the entire battle space with UASs aimed at degrading land operations.
Population centres and industry linked to the economy will be legitimate targets in future conflicts. The silence of the world on attacks on population centres and infrastructure has legitimized this for future wars. This implies that air defence needs far greater emphasis and integration that before. Ultimately the battle will be won by nations whose population displays resilience and stands together.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army