Lessons for India as Trump dumps allies The Statesman 20 Oct 2026
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Lessons for India as Trump dumps allies The Statesman 20 Oct 2026
Trump had stated on multiple occasions, ‘The Ukrainian conflict should never have happened, and would not have happened if I were President.’ He blamed Biden and Kamala Harris for the war. As per CNN, he mentioned 53 times that the war would end on ‘day one’ of his presidency. When questioned on it later he said it was mentioned in ‘jest.’ The war continues and desperation in Europe to contain Russia’s war economy increases.
Last month, seeing attempts at ending the conflict fading, Trump signed the Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act into law which gave him powers to place upto 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian energy. India was amongst nations most impacted and braced for sanctions.
In a surprise reversal, following a tele-conversation with Putin, Trump announced a diesel deal with Russia, by which Russia would supply 4.8 million metric tons or 36 million barrels of diesel to the world. In Oct, approximately 2.25 million barrels (300,000 metric tons) would be released followed by double the figure in Nov. This was aimed at reducing US diesel prices which had crossed $ 6 per gallon. Trump has always been fond of strong-arm dictators and Putin is one.
The reality is that global oil prices had stabilized over the years and went out of control post US-Israel attacks on Iran. Instead of admitting this, Trump attempted to cover his Iran fiasco. He blamed Zelensky for targeting Russian energy infrastructure which resulted in rise of diesel prices.
The total export of diesel from Russia would be less than 10 days of US consumption or less than a day of global demand. The US does not need Russian diesel as it is a net exporter of it and hence the intent is only to reduce global prices. As per Goldman Sachs, it could reduce diesel prices in the US by one to two dollars. Trump hopes to regain ground in next month’s midterm elections. Losing the senate would impact Trump’s remaining tenure.
Europe and Ukraine balked at the US decision. It only added to Europe’s belief that the US does not consider it an ally worth taking into confidence, a repeat of the Iran war. Zelensky responded on social media, ‘Allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged. What is needed is real de-escalation with Russia on a reciprocal basis.’ None of US’s allies stand with it. To add to Europe’s discomfort, Trump is considering unfreezing frozen Russian sovereign assets of upto USD 100 billion.
What flowed subsequently came as a bigger shock. In response to a question on his agreement with Putin, Trump stated that he would prefer Ukrainians elect a ‘new leader capable of making a deal’ with Russia. A day later he posted on his Truth Social site, ‘Zelensky is a dictator without elections, and he better act quickly, or he is going to lose that country,’ adding, ‘I love Ukraine, but Zelensky is doing a terrible job, his country is in ruins, millions of people have died unnecessarily.’
To add to fire, Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, without consulting Kiev, aimed at preventing it from targeting Russian refineries. This surprised Ukraine. It is quite likely that this was part of the agreement between Trump and Putin. Ukraine initially halted attacks on Russian refineries while Russia continued targeting Ukraine’s energy facilities. Moscow claimed that negotiations are ongoing and it rejects temporary ceasefires in lieu of long-term peace deals. Ukraine has restarted targeting Russian energy infrastructure, despite Trump’s warnings.
Trump also signalled his unwillingness to support Ukraine by constraining Starlink and Starshield as also stopping intelligence sharing. There were reports that soon after demanding fresh elections, Starlink speed was slowed in Ukraine. Musk responded by mentioning that while his company SpaceX controls Starlink, it is the US government, specifically the Pentagon, which controls Starshield, used by Ukrainian forces to target Russian assets by missiles and drones.
Inputs from the US indicate that Trump directed Musk to slow down both, Starlink and Starshield, as a means of adding pressure. Europe warned Musk on slowing Starlink. This is not the first time it has happened. In 2022, when Ukraine recaptured territory from Russia, Musk ordered his SpaceX engineers to cut Starlink coverage in contested areas. This was admitted a year later.
Europe also depends on Starlink and Starshield. The US action was a warning to it. Elon Musk mentioned on X, ‘Usage of Starlink is limited to civilian or defensive activities and cannot be used for offensive military action, as doing so would be inappropriate for a commercial company.’ This implied that slowing speed of Starlink impacted defensive operations of Ukraine as it is exploited by Ukrainian drones reacting to Russian missiles and drones as also for logistics and communications. It restricted Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. Musk came under criticism even from within the US.
This is the reason why India will hesitate accepting Starlink in the country as its control would never be with the government but with the US and Musk.
Trump’s actions in the oil deal with Moscow, dumping Europe and Ukraine, throw up valuable lessons for India. Firstly, inking any trade agreement with the US may be an error. The chances of Trump changing stance, depending on his whims is possible. He imposes sanctions where he desires and lifts them where it suits him, like he has done with Russia.
Secondly, considering US, especially when Trump is President, a reliable ally, is a fallacy. He can switch sides at the drop of a hat. Trump could back Pakistan or China in the event of a border clash, if it benefits him. This also implies that India’s dependence on US weapons and space platforms must be minimal. Is distancing in ties the reason why PM Modi will not be meeting Marc Rubio in Delhi, only the third time in history.
Thirdly, Starlink and its other services will never function under Indian government control and hence should be banned. Indian companies must be encouraged to reach similar status at the earliest. Finally, as visible in Ukraine, if the leadership signals disagreements with the US, there would be calls and attempts at regime change. Are ongoing protests in India engineered with a similar purpose as it refuses to toe the US line.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army