End of Sharif era: Is Pak facing another military dictatorship? Daily O 19 Jul 17
The Joint Investigation Team’s (JIT) report is now with the Supreme Court and the case to decide his future has commenced. The JIT found the Pak PM, Nawaz Sharif, to have disproportionate wealth, as also his family members. It recommended reopening cases which were either closed or ignored for a prolonged period. As calls for his resignation rise, opposition smiles widen, while the ruling party moves into deep huddles, awaiting the Supreme Court verdict. Comments from the court convey confusion and have left the public wondering on what decision is likely.
Bookies are busy as bets are placed on whether he would resign, be overthrown or remain in power. The only one whose authority has enhanced manifold is the army chief. His power is on the upswing, his control over the nation complete. The only action left is to shift the capital from Islamabad to Rawalpindi.
During this turmoil, a genuine comment made by a little-known politician, Javed Hashmi, made sense, but fear of the deep state, compelled the media to ignore it. His comment was, ‘while politicians are being held accountable, army chiefs and the judiciary are not’. The comment though true and agreed by many Pakistanis, may soon mean the end of Hashmi’s days.
The judiciary has changed its policies with change of rulers. It never questioned army takeovers, agreed to the implementation of illegal military courts, knowing they were distributing death sentences as if it were Christmas gifts. It has never been able to even question army chiefs over their misdeeds and its own corruption can never be challenged nor questioned. However, it has made damning comments on politicians, solely because it has army backing.
Their army lost every war with India, but there were no resignations or condemnations. The man behind the defeat in Kargil, Parvez Musharraf, went on to become the President of the country. Which other nation would permit an individual responsible for the death of thousands of NLI soldiers, whose bodies he even refused to collect, to assume the topmost mantle of the state. It is because of the army’s control over foreign policies and internal security that Pak is surrounded by enemies, less China, while moving deeper into an economic mess. However, the army’s power prohibits anyone from questioning it, let alone publicly but even on social media.
Nawaz is holding on, possibly maybe just. The first reaction of his supporters was to criticize the judiciary and the army for the decision of the JIT. It realized that though these two were working in tandem, it would be suicidal to condemn them hence shifted focus onto the JIT, which though influenced by the deep state is still a safer bet. The army claims it has played no role, a comment which itself implies its influence over the entire episode.
However, until the case is finally disposed of, Sharif would remain under pressure, unsure of his future, unable to take decisions and most importantly incapable and scared to even question the army. It is evident that any decision to bar Nawaz from politics would end the Sharif dynasty rule in Pak and criminal actions could follow, as even his heir apparent, his daughter, Maryam Nawaz, has been indicted.
There are limited choices available to the family for his replacement, his brother being possibly being the only one. If indicted, Sharif could follow Musharraf into obscurity to London or the Middle East. Nawaz has always had misfortune with army chiefs. Those he has appointed have overthrown him. Would history repeat itself, time would tell.
To further add to the confusion, Imran Khan, a possible contender for the Prime Minister’s throne has been declared a proclaimed offender by the court and his property ordered to be seized. Though the army’s pet now, he is also an unlikely candidate. Thus, doors are now open for the army chief to take the reins, either directly or indirectly.
General Bajwa now holds all the cards and is playing them close. The final decision from the court would depend on how he visualizes the future for himself, his army and the nation, after all they are all intrinsically linked. For the region, instability would only increase, as the deep state would be unwilling to even discuss peace with any neighbour, seeking to meet its objectives by continuing support to terror groups with absolutely no political interference.
Though the deep state has witnessed continuous failures, yet it would perforce reinforce failures, as it has no other option. Its actions in Kashmir appear to be meeting strong resistance. Indian counter actions are on the rise enhancing Pak army casualties, inducted militants are being culled at the border and those within are running for their lives. Such is the level of casualties within the army, that it is unwilling to even share its figures.
Its support base of the Hurriyat is being rendered inoperable and its modules busted at frequent intervals. Hence, it is slowly losing the war in J and K, as the Indian army regains control. Tensions are on the rise along its borders with Iran and Afghanistan. Afghanistan is now a sworn enemy and Iran would follow suit shortly. The new amendment passed by the US senate would restrict funds and support, thus ensuring it has only Chinese backing.
Political turmoil in any nation impacts its economy and Pakistan is no exception. Its markets are tumbling and the government would be able to do little to prevent a bloodbath on its stock exchange, in case Sharif is convicted. Internationally, Pak would head deeper into trouble, as without a strong political leadership, the army would become uncontrollable and enhance enmity. Its only saviour would be China, which would get sucked deeper into a confused Pakistan, solely because of its immense investments.
South Asia would be the loser, as a beleaguered elected government is prevented from carrying out its responsibilities. For its neighbours little would change, except enhanced enmity. Its own populace would witness further internal turmoil as the battle for political supremacy commences. The streets would be filled with supporters and protestors enhancing law and order problems. The power of the army would prevent any criticism of its internal actions, even if it fails at every step. The days ahead are bleak for the nation as the battle between survival and conviction gains strength.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army