Panama papers and Nawaz Sharif’s waterloo: How Pakistan Supreme Court made the PM a pawn DailyO 22 Apr 17
The recent split judgement of the Pakistan Supreme Court giving Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif breathing space by appointing a Joint Investigation Team (JIT), to investigate the Panama papers claims of financial irregularities by him and his family, has changed the strategic scenario in the country. The JIT comprises of members of the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), National Accountability Bureau (NAB), Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP), Military Intelligence (MI) and the ISI. It has been granted two months to complete its probe and submit its findings. Whether it does so or seeks an extension, time would tell. However, it has set a precedent which would only harm the nation and the political leadership in the days ahead. It would alter the strategic balance in the country and severely affect civil-military interface and Indo-Pak relations.
It is known in Pakistan, that the deep state, comprising the ISI and the army are the main power base, the political leadership being mere pawns in their hands. Nawaz Sharif had hoped that by appointing General Bajwa as the new Chief, superseding others, he would be in the driver’s seat, as it appeared that General Bajwa was a strong believer of democratic governance. This now seems to change. Nawaz Sharif and his government are already being side lined by the deep state as events in recent times seem to indicate.
The announcement of the launch of the latest anti-terror operation, Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad, spread across the country including Punjab, was done by the head of Pakistan’s Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), Major General Asif Ghafoor, and not the government, which was only logical. In a similar manner, the conduct of the military trial of Kulbhushan Jadhav, the supposed Indian spy, and the announcement of the death sentence was done by the ISPR. In both cases the government was left red faced and struggled to handle the aftermath. Calls for counsellor access have been denied because the army is unwilling.
The Supreme Court order has only added fuel to fire. The JIT has representatives of the ISI and MI as members. Officially the head of the ISI is appointed by the Prime Minister on the recommendations of the army chief and is supposed to report directly to him. The reality is far from this. The Dawn newspaper of Pakistan officially commented that other than these two agencies (ISI and MI), all others report to the Prime Minister, hence possibly affecting the probe. The fact that two agencies report to the army chief, implies that the final leverage would remain in his hands.
Nominating of a spy agency (ISI) which controls terror groups operating against India and Afghanistan, as also a military intelligence agency being part of a JIT investigating financial irregularities and purchase of properties abroad, beats all logic. The probe is not on selling military secrets nor terror funding nor anti-national activities nor spying, hence does not warrant involvement of military agencies. The only possible reason is the hold of the deep state in the country, as also its ability to influence the courts. It should be remembered that setting up of military courts undermines belief and faith in their own judicial system and yet the Supreme Court maintained silence, without even challenging its formation.
This decision by the Supreme Court is a game changer. Earlier all other civilian agencies had refused to conduct the probe, stating that the investigation does not fall within their charter, except the ISI and MI, which were then not even remotely involved. However, with this decision the army is clearly in the driver’s seat. It can directly influence the probe, move it in the manner in which it wishes to, embarrass the Prime Minister if it so desires, as also threaten the very survival of the government and the party. It can delay the final submission stating it needs more time, hence hold all cards till the time is right. The Prime Minister and his government are now pawns in the hands of the army chief, who now controls all the cards and is the de facto head of state.
Thus civil-military relations in Pak are now tilting clearly in favour of the army. This would thus impact Indo-Pak relations. While presently relations between the two are at their lowest ebb, there was a hope that the two Prime Ministers could meet on the side lines of the SCO summit about two months away in Russia. There were thoughts that it could herald a small shift in relations. Nawaz came to power promising improvement in ties with India. Every step that he wanted to take was shot in the back by the deep state. With limited time left for fresh elections, this could possibly be his last chance. However, with this judgement nothing can be expected. He would be compelled to sing the army tune, independence of thought having vanished into thin air.
Pakistan Supreme Court, in one short and swift judgement has altered the balance of power in the country as also adversely affected international relations. In the ultimate count, it would be most humiliating for a Prime Minister to present himself before junior staff members whenever summoned. The opposition may keep calling for his resignation, which he can very well turn down, but the humiliation would remain. The only one left smiling at the end of the day is the army chief, who holds all aces up his sleeve, threatening to release them whenever he desires. For Nawaz Sharif, it is once again an irony of fate. The man you appointed now controls you and your government. This has always been Nawaz’s waterloo. For India, there is no option but to continue challenging Pakistan in every sphere, as any small hopes of any de-escalation seem to fade.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army