Trump outplayed by Putin at summit The Statesman 24 Jul 18
Putin emerged the clear winner at the end of the Trump-Putin summit in Helsinki. Surprisingly, it was Trump who was pushing for the summit and had directed his staff to move forward on the same from the time he assumed the chair. It appeared as if he was rushing to fulfil his election promises, without realizing that he would be facing a seasoned leader.
Putin came to the summit at the end of the FIFA world cup, an event which boosted the standing and image of the country. It was also an event attended by many world leaders. Putin has been in power for 18 years, while Trump for 18 months. Putin has complete control over his country and has ensured that no detractor is free. He has dominated the world scene in recent times, pushed the US into a defensive position in Syria and has close relations with all US enemies and contenders.
Trump on the other hand has been facing internal flak for his multiple policy failures in recent times, whether it be his behaviour in NATO, G7, UK or even the possibly unsuccessful summit in North Korea. Clearly, Putin had the advantage.
Trump, who was expected to raise multiple issues which concerned the US with Putin, did nothing, only angering his colleagues, detractors and intelligence agencies. His comments in the joint press conference ended with him accusing his own agencies while supporting Putin’s comments on non- interference. A few days before the summit he had criticized the German Chancellor Angela Merkel for buying Russian gas, claiming Germany was a captive of Russia for supporting a gas pipeline deal with Russia.
Back home from the summit, he continues to face flak. In his opinion, closer relations with Russia are more important than satisfying his detractors. What gave him further boost was Putin’s statement that Russia was desirous of Trump winning the election as all through his campaign he had stated that he sought closer ties with Russia.
In his last days as President, Obama had acted against Russia for meddling in US elections. Putin initially did not retaliate, as he expected things to change post the arrival of Trump. However, with pressure from Congress, Trump was prevented from changing stance and compelled into signing CAATSA (Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act). He was also compelled to stand by the UK in the poisoning case, and expelled Russian diplomats as also closed their consulate in Seattle. Russia reacted this time and expelled similar numbers of US diplomats, while closing their consulate too. No doubt relations between the worlds largest and second largest nuclear powers were at an ebb.
Worsening of relations were blamed by Trump on Obama, FBI and Mueller, who has been tasked with investigating the Russian interference. The fact that 12 Russians were indicted for the same almost on the day of the summit was ignored. Clearly, Trump accepted the words of Putin who claimed that Russia did nothing, except hoped Trump would win.
It does appear that there was either no discussion nor any consensus on resolving Syria, annexation of Crimea, interference in Ukraine and the poisoning in UK. It is also evident that despite suggestions, Trump did not raise any issue of human rights abuses in Russia. This has largely angered the US political and strategic community which felt that this summit was a sell-out by Trump. Thus, Trump only played to Putin, rather than dominate the discussion from the US perspective as he was expected to do.
Putin added further spokes to the US investigation by announcing that Mueller could either send a questionnaire to Russian agencies, who would obtain answers from those indicted or question them in Russia in the presence of Russian agents. This offer was based on an earlier agreement between both nations. Either option is a loss to the US. Sending a questionnaire would elicit replies which would stall the investigation for eternity. Questioning in Russia would open doors to Russian agents seeking to question their presumed spies in the US.
In one move, Putin has stalled any further move by the US on the investigation. Trump on the other hand unaware of the implications jumped on the offer by Putin, claiming it to be ‘spectacular’. However, anger against Russia continues to grow within the agencies in the US. The FBI and Mueller stand firm in their belief that there was clear Russian interference.
Even within his own circle of officials, his sell-out was almost a sign of self-destruction. Post the press conference, White House officials failed to even garner any answers to multiple questions being raised by local media seeking clarifications on Trump’s comments.
Trump may have promised Russia on smoothening of relations but would not be able to implement it. As Putin stated, when he presented a football to Trump, ‘The ball is now in your court’, it is there, but Trump can do little. Congress would continue to hem Trump from opening US doors to Russia. Sanctions on Iran, a close Russian ally would continue, impacting even Russian companies dealing with Iran. Trump would continue supporting Ukraine against Russia. CAATSA would remain as Trump does not have the power to lift it. He would remain critical of Germany for choosing Russian gas as against US supplies.
The investigation would now receive even greater internal support, though it can never come to a definitive conclusion, as Putin has effectively blocked the same.
India which was seeking a positive outcome as it seeks to reignite its ties with Russia and bypass CAATSA while procuring its S400 Missiles from Russia would be disappointed. The chances of the Congress giving a waiver to India now appear dim, considering the US perception of failure of the summit. For once Trump was trumped by a more wily and experienced Putin. His desire for a second face saving summit would remain a dream for some time.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army