India’s international balancing act The Statesman 12 Jun 18
India seeking to expand its ties across the globe, has been receiving positive signals. Nations flock to sign security and economic pacts with India. All this because of the nation’s military and economic might, which guides its foreign policy. The present government has since its inception been on an international overreach seeking to enhance the nation’s stature. While India has clearly shifted into the US camp, yet it continues to ignore the US’s challengers in the region for its own security interests.
India seeks to re-establish ties with China which had moved into a freefall, post the Doklam standoff. Though it exercises with the US and Japan, it has deliberately kept Australia out of the group. The US and Japan have openly indicated that this grouping is against Chinese hegemony, while India has made no such comments. In fact, it has been the reverse from the Indian side, seeking to downplay the intentions behind the exercise.
Even within Asia, India and China continue to establish footholds in the others backyard, though with caution. India has close ties with Vietnam and is considering exporting BrahMos missiles to them. It has now been granted a naval base in Indonesia. All ASEAN members, as guests for this year’s Republic Day, signed defence cooperation agreements with India. China already has a base in Sri Lanka, has enhanced relations with Maldives and may soon possess a base in Myanmar, all within India’s backyard.
In the Shangri-la dialogue in Singapore last week, Modi stated that the two Asian neighbours have shown ‘maturity and wisdom’ in managing issues and ensuring a peaceful border, adding cooperation between the two was expanding. His positive comments were appreciated by China. In the presence of the US Defence Secretary, Jim Mattis, he also stressed on ‘freedom of navigation, unimpeded commerce and peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with international law’ and ‘impossible burdens of debt’ both hinted at China. This was a clear example of a careful manifestation of a neutral foreign policy.
While the US imposes sanctions on Russia and Iran, India has officially announced that despite US imposing CAATSA, India would continue with its military purchases from Russia. In addition, it has maintained that it would purchase oil from Iran and continue with its development of the Chabahar port. India has stated that since these sanctions are not supported by the UN, India would not accept them.
India has over 60% of its military equipment of Russian origin. However, in recent times, India seeking equipment from Western suppliers, including the US, slowly pushed the two countries apart. The Indian economy is almost twice that of the Russian, though bilateral trade is low. India remains wary of growing Russian proximity to Pakistan and hence would desire to rekindle the relationship to earlier levels.
Therefore, it cannot let the US sanctions impede its arms purchase from Russia. It may seek a diplomatic way out, but if push comes to shove, it would be a tough decision. India may have to risk US sanctions, but cannot break its Indo-Russian relations, on the whims and fancies of the US.
Simultaneously are growing relations with the US, which in deference to increasing Indian ties, has rechristened its Pacific Command as the Indo-Pacific Command. The change may be symbolic, but is indicative of growing relations. In every forum, the US continues to state that India is a natural strategic ally, with whom it seeks to enhance ties.
The reasons for the US’s comments are obvious. Firstly, India is the only nation in Asia, which possesses the military and economic leverage to challenge the Chinese. Secondly, for India, Afghanistan is a natural ally, where it would seek to maintain a strong economic foothold, not military, which benefits the US. Thirdly, India’s growing military demands would fuel the US economy, which was experiencing a downfall and increased unemployment. Finally, as the worlds largest democracy, it is but natural that the two nations would see eye-to-eye on multiple issues.
There are hiccups though. India wants to continue with its engagement with Russia and Iran, two of the US’s main adversaries for multiple reasons, which would always remain a stumbling block. India is carefully crafting its foreign strategy, ignoring taking sides as also avoiding commenting on contentious international issues, which are a fallout of the growing rivalry.
Its memberships of organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) dominated by Russia and China would always remain a thorn. India was North Korea’s third largest trading partner, until the sanctions. Though it cut down its trade, it is amongst the few countries, which continues to maintain diplomatic relations with them, despite the US then desiring India withdraw its staff.
Israel and Iran are sworn enemies. Both see the other as a threat to their survival. India has again been playing a safe diplomatic manoeuvring game between the two. While it voted against the US decision to shift its embassy to Jerusalem, it never participated in the debate, nor criticized the US decision. An Israeli newspaper made a comment that in the event of an Israel-Iran war, whom would India support.
It is amongst the largest purchaser of military hardware from Israel as also the second largest procurer of oil from Iran. The bonhomie between Modi and Netanyahu was evident, so was the understanding between Modi and the Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani during their visits to India. India has never commented on the US withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), nor stopped its procurement of oil nor its development of the Chabahar port.
The present government has pushed Indian diplomacy to the limits, maintaining relations with opposite camps and sworn enemies. It has managed to walk the tightrope so far. However, as time passes and the US begins pushing India into denuding its Russian and Iranian relations, because of their own strategic interests, then maintaining relations as at present would be a true test for the Modi government.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army