Russia, China and the Korean cauldron The Statesman 05 Jun 18
From the first meeting between the leaders of the two Korea’s in the demilitarized zone in end Apr, the announcement of denuclearization of the peninsula and willingness for direct talks with the US on the subject, hope has risen across the globe that a resolution is likely.
From insults and barbs between the leaders of the US and North Korea to a possible bonhomie, a lot has moved in just over a month. Kim Jong-un has moved from being a ‘little rocket man’ to an individual with whom the US can talk. With days left for a possible summit, hectic diplomatic parleys appear to be ensuring that it does take place. Singapore, the destination is gearing up to host the two leaders.
The US NSA, John Bolton’s remarks supported by the US Vice President Mike Pence, that North Korea should follow the Libyan model, where Gaddafi handed over his nuclear designs and equipment in exchange for removal of sanctions, leading to his downfall, almost derailed the summit. North Korea hit back, calling Mike Pence a ‘political dummy’. Talks were brought back on track by an unscheduled meeting between the leaders of the two Korea’s. Trump also had to shift stance and disconnect with the comments.
Trump has gone further ahead and melted down from his earlier stance that the talks should lead to denuclearization or he could walk away. He has now stated that it is unlikely to happen in one sitting, ‘there’s a very good chance that it won’t be done in one meeting or two meetings or three meetings. But it’ll get done at some point.’
Diplomatic meetings are occurring simultaneously in multiple locations. In New York, the North Korean leader’s envoy, Kim Yong Chol, and US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, discussed possible outcomes of the summit, while the two nation’s delegations have been meeting in the demilitarized zone, seeking to reach a final declaration. A letter from Kim to Trump confirming the summit has been handed over. The delegates would next be meeting in Singapore, ahead of the summit, to iron out protocol and other issues.
While the US and North Korea continue discussions, Russia, alongside China are carefully orchestrating a possible solution from behind the scenes. Kim Jong-un has visited China twice, each time before he has met the US Secretary of State, possibly to obtain the views of Xi Jinping and discuss a way forward. China has remained a steadfast supporter of the regime, though during the last one year when Kim was conducting his tests, he ignored even China.
Just as delegation level talks between the US and North Korea appear to be moving forward, Russia wanders in. Russia had maintained a steadfast silence throughout, watching from the side lines, selecting the appropriate moment to wander in.
The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, visited Pyongyang when talks were ongoing in New York. The comment by Lavrov, ‘It’s obvious that when a conversation starts about solving a nuclear problem and other problems of the Korean peninsula, we proceed from the fact that the decision can’t be complete while sanctions are still in place.’ Kim in his remarks mentioned ‘US hegemonism’ and his desire to boost relations with Russia. Sergei, by his comments, hinted that it would demand partial lifting of sanctions.
For China and Russia, the survival of North Korea is paramount. Both the nations border North Korea and would never desire a US backed Korea on their doorstep. Thus, ensuring survival of the regime is essential. While presently talks are scheduled between the US and North Korea, they remain key stakeholders. Thus, the direct hint towards lifting of sanctions by the Russian foreign minister.
If the US believes that it alone can be the guarantor for North Korea to surrender its nuclear weapons, then it is living in a fool’s paradise. Every nation which has trusted the US has been let down. Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein and now Iran have realized that the US cannot be trusted. Japan is already feeling marginalized.
North Korea would therefore need to bank more on China and Russia, two nations which desperately need North Korea to survive. These are better bets as guarantors, alongside the US. Further, the deal would need to be ratified by the UN, ensuring that the US does not pull the plug at a later timeframe as Trump has done with Iran.
The hint given by Russia on sanctions is clearly that post the meeting at Singapore, it would raise stakes in the UN Security Council for partial lifting of sanctions against North Korea. This move aimed at enhancing confidence would be strongly supported by China and other permanent members, already miffed with the US on Iran.
It would put the US in a bind as employing its veto would result in their efforts thus far moving down the drain, while it would be unwilling to agree, as in their perception it is sanctions alone which has compelled North Korea to act. The comments of Jim Mattis over the weekend that North Korea would not get any sanctions relief until, ‘verifiable and irreversible’ steps are taken, may not hold good.
A lot is at stake as the summit draws close. North Korea would never jump and surrender weapons which assure its security on the words of Trump. It may place further nuclearization on hold and possibly admit to UN checks. It would demand more than just the US guarantee, if it seeks to surrender its weapons program.
It may seek to involve Russia, China and the UN into discussions. There is no doubt that China and Russia would end up with a greater role than what the US envisages. However, at every step it would demand lifting of sanctions and aid in return. In the long run, for once Trump may find himself outmanoeuvred by a nexus of North Korea, China and Russia. Now that he has stepped in, walking out may be nigh impossible.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army