New US national security strategy and our neighbourhood (English Version) Rakshak News 28 Dec 17
President Trump’s government unveiled its new National Security Strategy (NSS) last week. It has since been dominating headlines in the region. The NSS lays down his government’s views on existing and emerging threats and its strategy to counter them. The NSS is mandated by Congress based on the Goldwater Nichols act and each President is expected to issue it annually. Since the US’s changed strategy in Afghanistan and enhanced deployment, the region has gained prominence in their eyes. Hence Pakistan, a primary supporter of the Taliban and Haqqani network as also a stumbling block in establishing peace in the region, was bound to figure prominently in the NSS.
China has always been viewed as a competitor, both militarily and economically by the US. It’s aggressiveness in the South China Sea, subduing nations post advancing loans with high rates of interest, supporting the troublesome regimes of Pakistan and North Korea, dominating its neighbours with whom it has border disputes and expanding into Africa, thus seeking to change existing world order, has put it into direct confrontation with the US. Its trade imbalance is also a matter of concern.
Amongst the countries whom the US considers as a major threat, as listed in the NSS, apart from China and Pakistan, are Russia, North Korea and Iran. Iran and North Korea have not even bothered to respond to the claims of the US. Pakistan and China, comrades-in-arms have criticized the approach adopted by the US. Russia too has accused the US of moving back into the cold war era. India on the other hand has been viewed as a ‘leading global power and a strong strategic and defence partner’ and hence has welcomed the NSS.
For the US, South Asia and the Indo-Pacific, which it terms extending from the West Coast of India to the shores of the US, are regions of keen interest. Its demands on Pak to do more to curb terror groups operating from its soil and ‘demonstrate that it is a responsible steward of its nuclear assets’ was bound to anger them.
For Pak, the US NSS which states a closer interaction and ‘supporting India’s leadership role in the Indo-Pacific and the broader region’ is bound to cause anxiety. Its mention of supporting South Asian nations to ‘maintain their sovereignty as China increases its influence’ would anger China. These remarks have been deliberately placed into the NSS.
Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Pakistan and possibly in the future Nepal and Bangladesh are heading deeper under Chinese influence. Sri Lanka has handed over the Hambantota port to China on a ninety-nine years lease, while Myanmar is in discussion with China on its repayment problems. Nepal with a pro-China government in place would possibly soon follow. The Doklam crises emerged from China seeking to break Indian influence in Bhutan and move it away from the Indian camp.
Pakistan would soon become a Chinese state considering the quantum of investment done and resultant repayment difficulties it is likely to face. The US is also aware of similar increasing Chinese influence in Africa. Thus, both China and Pakistan view the NSS to be more pro-India than a true independent US strategy.
Pak fails to realize that Afghanistan is presently at a crucial juncture for the US. It cannot withdraw without ensuring stability, nor can it enforce it unless the Taliban and the Haqqani network are compelled to come onto the bargaining table. It therefore needs Pak to cooperate and stop providing them sanctuaries. The NSS is clearly a hint for Pak to comprehend US demands, which if it doesn’t, would be enforced by employing diplomatic and military pressures.
Hence, the NSS mentions, ‘We will insist that Pak take decisive action against militant and terrorist groups operating from its soil.’ These statements were further endorsed when the US Vice President, Mike Pence, stated in Afghanistan that Trump has placed Pakistan on notice, much to the anger of their national leadership.
With growing military control over Pak as also increased military support to fundamentalist and terror groups, there is a fear of the stability and security of their nuclear assets. The biggest nightmare for the western world is Jihadis gaining control of Pak’s nuclear assets. This is probable as the army is pushing fundamentalist and terrorist groups into political legitimacy by enabling them to contest the 2018 elections. Thus, the words in the NSS of Pak demonstrating its responsible stewardship of nuclear assets.
The US is aware that in the region it cannot face challenges alone. Hence, India which has disagreements with both Pakistan and China is a natural ally. India’s growing military and economic power, proximity to trade routes and geo strategic location makes it a force multiplier to partner in the Indian ocean. It is for this reason that the US, Japan and Australia have joined hands with India to form the ‘Quad’. Its exercises are closely monitored by China, which views it as being against them.
While the NSS would remain a guiding document and its implementation may vary, it has stated US likes, dislikes and challenges. Pakistan is now in international cross hairs solely for the wrong reasons. Its policy of employing terror groups as a diplomatic tool and supporting fundamentalist organizations has brought forth international ire. India on the other hand is a growing power, engaging whom would only be a benefit. To continue to garner Indian support, the NSS has on many occasions spoken in the Indian tone.
How strongly would it be implemented, time would be the best judge. However, it has clearly brought forth the fact that the US may not in the close future engage positively with China and Pakistan, nations inimical to Indian interests. It would need greater Indian support with passage of time.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army