Don’t make an Iraq or Libya out of Syria The Statesman 18 Apr 17
The launching of fifty-nine Tomahawk missiles against the Syrian regime by the US has again brought the region into focus. While the world deplores the use of chemical weapons, there is always a lingering doubt, on who is correct, the US, which blames Syria for the strike or the Russians, who claim it was done by the rebels to malign the government. The Russians and the Iranians strongly back Assad and refuse to discuss any future of Syria without him. The US and its allies are clear and seek a Syria without Assad, hence, openly support rebels seeking to oust him. In this confusion, there is no mention of who could replace Assad, possibly creating another Iraq or Libya, where Islamist groups have re-emerged.
For over seven years, Syria has been the epicentre of a proxy war fuelled by a civil strife between opposing superpowers. Weapons under production are tested on its soil, new military bases created, cities destroyed, population displaced and innocent civilians killed. All this to enable one man to be overthrown or supported to continue in power. Crudely put, Assad is a male version of ‘Helen of Troy’, launching a million bombs or missiles. The Syrian scenario has multitude of groups operating almost independently, with latent support from powerful nations or neighbours. This has enabled the ISIS to flourish, draw in cadre, launch assaults in neighbouring countries and regions far from the battle zone, resulting in the greatest humanitarian crisis and migration, since the second world war.
The missile strikes by the US and its oft repeated claim that Assad must go, brings back haunting memories of similar claims in earlier days and subsequent fallouts.
The US walked into Iraq, claiming it had Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). Many theories are abound on the true reasons for its intervention. The most logical is that post his defeat in Kuwait, Saddam was contemplating shifting to any other currency for sale of oil, in lieu of the dollar. This would have harmed the US economy, as the dollar being an international currency, enables it to continue with its fiscal policy of deficits and still control world economy. Hence, Saddam had to go and the WMDs were only an excuse. The US waded in, destroyed his regime and installed a unity government. It disintegrated Iraq’s military and attempted to re-create it anew.
The result was chaos, breakdown of law and order, opening doors for the ISIS to rise from the ashes. The US withdrew without ensuring stabilization. It failed to comprehend the geopolitical requirements of the region, implying a strong divide between communities, requiring a strong government and powerful military to control the region. The US is back, battling the ISIS.
Gaddafi in Libya handed over designs of a nuclear weapon, obtained clandestinely from Pakistan and North Korea to the US, seeking peace. When the Arab Spring commenced in Libya, the US supported the uprising. For once, Barack Obama admitted, it was his gravest mistake. In Feb 11, at the commencement of the uprising, led by the al Qaeda, the US launched over one hundred and thirty Tomahawk missiles on the Libyan military and eliminated its ability to restore order. The result was overthrow of Gaddafi and re-emergence of the al Qaeda, which the US has re-commenced engaging. Libya remains unstable, with different factions controlling different parts of the country.
While Syria, Iraq and Libya are oil producers, North Korea is not. Hence the country has only been threatened but never acted against. For a nation like the US, with technology and precision missiles at its beck and call, monitoring the movement and location of any North Korean leader (present or past) was never impossible, nor was eliminating him. There would always be an element of risk, which sometime back could have been accepted. Presently with a vast collection of missiles and nuclear devices, it is a missed opportunity.
The US intervention in Afghanistan was hurried, seeking revenge and retribution to 9/11. The operations were swift and body bags were accepted back home, after all, they were avenging American lives. The elimination of Osama Bin Laden was the turning point. Aim was achieved, America’s most wanted was brought to justice, now why should it remain. Thus, Barack Obama began implementing his plans for withdrawal, even without stabilizing nor annihilating the Taliban. The US was seeking an exit strategy, but there was no answer in sight. Presently, Afghanistan remains a mess, solely because the US played soft to Pakistan which did and still continues to support the Taliban. Ignoring the US, other nations in the neighbourhood have jumped in, attempting to resolve the Afghanistan tangle. It could end with another regime change with the Taliban to joining the government or controlling part of the country.
The missile strike on Syria has resulted in the US and Russia drifting further apart and cooperation, if any, on the future of Syria is all but over. For any nation, irrespective how powerful it is, attempting a regime change in another nation, unless there is a locally acceptable alternative, especially where sect, tribal and ethnic differences exist, would be a failure. It would open doors for radical Islamic groups to re-emerge destabilizing a larger region. Recent history has proved this on numerous occasions, but its lessons have been ignored.
Maintaining forces to ensure stabilization, post a regime change, is an expensive effort for any power, hence compels them to pull out before completion of their mission, solely on economic grounds. Before world powers take any decision on Assad’s future, the region should be stabilized and an alternative acceptable to all parties must exist. Accountability to prevent a recurrence of Iraq, Libya or Afghanistan should be laid down. The world community must unite against superpower games, seeking enhanced control over regions and resources, killing innocent humans and impacting nations, including those far removed from the conflict, solely for personal interest and power.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army