Political crisis in Kashmir (English version) Amar Ujala 26 Jun 18
The pulling out of the BJP from the coalition has led to the resignation of the present government. The coalition was from the start, a matter of convenience. The two parties were like chalk and cheese. The BJP won all its seats in the Jammu belt, while the PDP in the valley. The BJP desired a strong stance against terrorism and stone throwers, while the PDP sought a softer stand against local youth who picked the gun and stone throwers, calling them misguided. Mehbooba had a soft corner for the valley and ignored Jammu and Leh, while the BJP could not push forward its agenda for Jammu.
Thus, the BJP was certain that if it continued with the coalition, it would suffer a humiliating defeat in the Jammu belt in 2019. It therefore had to project a change in its approach. As the party gears up for 2019, its first action was to withdraw from the coalition, hoping to regain its lost ground. The unilateral ceasefire, NICO (Non-Initiation of Combat Operations), was a failure as neither did the militants relent nor did the separatists agree for talks.
The PDP on the other hand was only concerned about the valley, from where it gains its strength. When the case for removal of Article 35A was lodged in the Supreme Court, Mehbooba planned to fight the case as a state, ignoring demands for Jammu which wanted it removed. The Kathua rape case brought forth the divide between the two parts of the state. Anger was already rising within Jammu with the growing influx of Rohingya population, which was a precursor to this incident and was being ignored by the state government. It is evident that the governor would act against them in a quick timeframe.
Further, the disagreements within the coalition also prevented the state government from announcing and implementing the surrender package for militants. While Mehbooba wanted to be generous seeking to give a higher package, hoping to rope in wayward youth. The BJP felt that the amount being offered was more than that offered for casualties of Pak firing and militant action. The monthly stipend being offered was almost at par with the amount educated youth got under the J and K government’s fixed pay policy.
The ultimate straw was the failure of the Ramzan ceasefire, for which the blame was being placed on the government from every quarter. The ceasefire was opposed by the state BJP but was pushed down by the centre. Its failure gave the BJP the desired reason. It was seeking an excuse, this was the one. Mehbooba on the other hand was always hesitant with the coalition. She delayed assuming the chair until she received guarantees from the PM on assured support.
While governor’s rule would enhance power and freedom to security forces to act, however could always have a negative impact. The upcoming Amarnath Yatra, a national event, which is eagerly waited for by local Kashmiri’s as a major source of revenue and equally by participants from across the country as a major religious pilgrimage, is also a sought-after target by militants. Hence its conduct would be a major security concern.
With governor’s rule, possibility of seeking talks with separatists is all but over. While the interlocutor would continue with his task, not much could be expected. The sudden deterioration in the valley has clearly the hands of the Hurriyat and Pak guiding it. Hence, possibly government agencies including the NIA and ED would have a free hand alongside state intelligence agencies to act against them, isolate them and reduce their influence in the valley, an action prevented by the PDP.
The negative fallout, which would soon start doing the rounds and become more pronounced is the fact that governor’s rule would project a message that the government has been unable to control the valley. The separatists and Pak would begin stating that the valley is under the control of security agencies (read army). If the government decides to appoint an ex-army officer as the governor, as is being spoken off, the calls would become more pronounced. In case of one incident leading to casualties this message would become louder and exploited internationally.
Even during the height of the violence post the elimination of Burhan Wani, the fact that the state had a political government kept anti-nationals and Pak from claiming that the valley has been handed over to security forces. While they accused security forces of employing pellet guns or excessive force, they could never claim that security forces control the state. The same would not be the situation at present, hence security forces need to be cautious.
The BJP has taken a gamble, though it almost had no choice. It was because of a complete mismatch between the parties in outlook had begun losing its support base in Jammu. It was desperate to regain the same. If governor’s rule is unable to bring the situation to near normalcy (normalcy is still far away), the BJP would be accused of being responsible for the failure. If security forces along with the NIA and ED segregate the Hurriyat and reduce levels of violence, the BJP will gain across the nation. The coming months hold the cards for the future of the BJP.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army