Is Delhi losing the Kashmir plot? The Excelsior 19 Apr 17
Two videos, amongst many other similar clips, went viral on social media recently. The first was the manhandling of a CRPF jawan and the second of a stone thrower, tied to an army vehicle. The reactions of the media and politicians depended on whether they were pro or anti- government. It has also resulted in twitter battles between supporters and opponents of security operations in the valley. Linked to this, was the recently concluded by-polls for the Srinagar seat, which witnessed its lowest percentage of voting in three decades, amidst increased violence. The Anantnag by-poll now stand postponed to the latter part of May.
Calls for protests and stone throwing, disruption of the polling process and attacks on security personal increased fear within the local population, resulting in even those genuinely desirous of voting, staying away. Pro-Pak separatists and Farooq Abdullah claim India is losing control over Kashmir, while opposition leaders blame the present BJP-PDP government of having lost the trust of the population.
Is the present scenario a sign that the government is losing the Kashmir plot? Many strategic writers in the country too are seeking answers to the same question, while demanding that the government reassess its Kashmir strategy. Suggestions vary between adopting a harder approach to initiating talks with anti-national elements. There is no doubt that the situation has deteriorated in recent times, with locals becoming bolder in challenging the authority of the state. Most injuries and deaths happen to youth, who in their exuberance stand tall in front, pelting stones and inviting bullets, while instigators remain in the background. Within the country, increased targeting of security forces, enhances the divide between a sterner stance and calls for dialogue.
The situation was not ripe for elections to be held from the start. Stone throwing and anti-India sentiments were on the ascendancy in South Kashmir, since the encounter killing of Burhan Wani. It was evident, when locals arrived in large numbers aiming to disrupt encounters and challenge the might of security forces. Pushing for polls now was a mistake, though the Election Commission (EC) had limited choices, as elections had to be held simultaneously across the nation. Attempts at booth ransacking and disruptions, resulting in the deaths of eight locals and scores including security personal injured, just a day prior, was signal enough for the EC to reconsider its decision of going ahead with the polls. It had to push ahead, to avoid sending a wrong message. It did react subsequently and postponed by-polls for Anantnag.
Open funding from across the border, increased anti-national comments by separatists and politicians desperately seeking votes, as also lack of employment opportunities have only incensed the youth. Locals turned militants continue to guide them in disrupting security force operations, employing mobile communication channels. Smart phones upload videos from both sides, strong actions by security forces and violent protests by the youth. Local Hurriyat representatives are becoming popular with the population, since they provide the funding, but hide in the background, pushing innocents into the line of fire. Pakistan has succeeded in moving the agitation away from the hands of separatists into that of local Hurriyat leaders and the Jamaat-e-Islami, thus ensuring that even if the leaders are sequestered, there would be minimum impact. Thus, talks are ruled out.
The government has attempted every democratic means seeking to break the impasse but has yet to succeed. In any other part of the country, it would have come down heavily, employing all resources and power of the state, to return normalcy to the region. However, sensitivity of the valley, increased national and international focus, as also a desire to maintain a tolerant image despite rising adversity (since the central government is being projected as pro-Hindutva), has compelled it to maintain a studied silence.
The national leadership would be aware of changing local developments and direction the movement is taking. It has its agencies with multiple sources, including boots on the ground, to provide it requisite inputs. Jumping in to act early would never do any good. Most of us have faded memories, but just to refresh, the situation was reversed in the valley in the nineties, when it was far worse. Nagaland and Mizoram were brought back from the brink. Though awareness levels are higher and communication means vastly improved, yet the centre can employ its full power, with direct control over the state or affected areas, with every form of restrictions. The present may appear disastrous for a few, not for the government. The Prime Minister has so far only spoken words of encouragement, seeking to explain and convince the population of the futility of engaging the might of the state. Rarely have negative comments flowed from Delhi. Financial and other support continues to pour into the region.
Talks are irrelevant, as Pak continues to instigate, Kulbhushan Jadav, being the latest in the list. Within the nation, demands for firm and strict action are on the increase, voices for maintaining calm are being side lined, strengthening the hands of the government. The government would have a combination of military and non-military options. The force option is always the last, but with increased targeting of civilians and security forces, including support to militants, it may be moved up the ladder. The military can provide the right environment, which it has done on numerous occasions, but political parties including those in the opposition and criticizing presently, have failed to capitalize. A pure military option is never the answer.
For once, a united opposition demands Governor’s rule, which the government presently ignores. It may be necessary at a later stage. Ultimately the government will have to ensure that the writ of the state runs in the region, irrespective of cost. In this scenario, it could ignore any criticism either at the national or international level. The government would resort to right action at the appropriate time. No government can permit any part of the country to consider secession, irrespective of the cause. Hence, pessimists need to reconsider their views and comments.
A worrying factor is that those agitating remain a miniscule, hence any action would harm the majority. The state economy is suffering as tourism, the principal revenue earner, is shunned due to fear. The youth, who have been incited to believe that they could succeed, would suffer as the cycle of violence would lead to closure of educational institutions. Those inciting the youth are aware that the government would ultimately respond as it cannot appear to be weak, hence have ensured that their kith and kin are away from this violent atmosphere and they themselves remain in the background. When the pressure mounts, the instigators would vanish, to re-emerge once again at a different time and place.
As a positive note, the agitation and targeting of security forces has enhanced nationalism and bonding within the nation, bringing together elements which initially opposed the centre. As nationalism continues to rise, Kashmiri’s working or studying anywhere in the country are likely to be stereotyped as anti-national and targeted, which would cause further alienation.
In this complex scenario, there is still a glimmer of hope that stake holders realize the movement is heading for a showdown, which would cause more harm than good, hence saner elements need to take the lead to diffuse the situation, before it reaches boiling point. Delhi has not lost the Kashmir plot but is awaiting the appropriate moment to act and would act decisively.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army