How long will Imran Khan’s honeymoon with the army continue ORF 08 Aug 18
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The recently concluded Pak elections almost went according to the script as determined by the deep state. The two reigning political parties, which have shared power over decades were pushed into the side lines and an almost obscure playboy politician, with no experience in governance, brought to power. Denying level playing fields to political parties other than Imran’s PTI, curbing the press, pressurizing powerful opposition politicians to either join the PTI or stand as independent candidates dominated the proceedings. International observers from the European Union also stated that there was no level playing field in the weeks preceding the elections.
The return of Nawaz and Maryam from London, to face jail terms, just prior to the final election dates almost put a spoke in the plans of the deep state. They had expected them to remain abroad like the former general, Musharraf. Their return could have led to immense emotional support and severely impacted its well thought through plan. Therefore, it resorted to two simultaneous actions. Firstly, Nawaz was moved straight to jail, preventing him from meeting even his mother and supporters and secondly, rigging was now essential for ensuring the army got the government it desired at the centre.
Handling Nawaz was the easier of the two, as he was given no choice. For formal rigging, the Election Commission had to be manipulated. It was done, and the Pak army granted magisterial powers and directly involved with the complete election process from movement of election stores to its presence, both inside and outside polling booths. Videos presently doing rounds on Pak social media indicate almost open rigging, marking votes cast to other parties being counted on the name of PTI, army personnel in uniform involved in counting votes as also celebrating the victory of Imran.
Equally important was to ensure a favourable government in Punjab, the largest and richest province, covering almost half the country and providing the largest seats to the senate. Imran had almost no hold in the state. Punjab was Nawaz’s stronghold. His vote banks had to be dented and split, while other actions continued unabated. The stumbling block could come in the form of international observers, which could damage the reputation of the state. Their numbers were kept low and hence their movement restricted. Juggling was possible in the counting process.
The participation of a multitude of religious and extremist groups, including those considered as global terrorists, into the poll process, supported and created by the deep state was intentional and part of the deep state’s strategy. The groups included Hafiz Saeed, a known global terrorist, led Milli Muslim League, standing on the platform of the Allah-o-Akbar Tehreek, the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, the political wing of the TTLY, which had launched an agitation at the behest of the army in Islamabad in Nov last year and the Ludhianvi led Ahl-e-Sunnat Wal Jammat, the bon on whom was lifted days before the election. Amongst the religious groups was the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a group of five religious parties.
These groups together fielded a total of 1500 candidates for both, the national assembly and provincial assembly seats, with the MMA alone fielding 460 candidates. Historically, Imran only had a grip on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with almost no presence in other provinces. Thus, these parties were pushed into the electoral process, mainly in regions where he lacked a political base, for multiple reasons.
Their votes could easily be rigged to support Imran, they could split the votes of other mainstream parties and ultimately, knowing that Imran lacking mass appeal, he may not win a majority on his own in the national assembly, despite the efforts of the deep state, hence may need coalition partners. What better partners than those from terrorist and religious groups backed by the deep state. This could effectively work for both, the national assembly and Punjab. Imran was the only political leader to approach each such group for support and he did receive it.
While these parties did manage to eat into the vote bank, they ultimately drew a blank in the elections, except the MMA which did win a handful of seats. For once, despite all their appeal and backing of the Pak army, the nation rejected them en-masse. This was a major setback to the deep state.
Does this action send a message that Pak as a nation rejects terrorist groups or the population has a growing resentment against the diktats of the deep state? The common Pakistani may have faced enough bloodshed to lose interest in the beliefs of terrorist groups, but the desire to regain Kashmir remains deep within him. Further, the belief that terrorist groups may not solve the problems of the nation led to their complete rejection.
More importantly, the mass rejection projects local anger against the dominant power of the army, which has unilaterally taken away most civil rights of the populace and treated them as second-class citizens in their own country. Therefore, it rejected terrorist groups backed by the army. Imran succeeded because he was seen to be clean and a change from other prominent parties which have dominated the political landscape for decades. Further, the manipulated press conveyed Imran to be the right man for the nation, which did influence votes, alongside known rigging. The army dominated press projected corruption angles of other political parties versus the clean image of Imran.
In the coming days, the army would re-evaluate the reasons for the public’s rejection of its sponsored terrorist groups converted to political parties and possibly bring about changes to ensure that it does not happen in future elections. After all, these are early days and once Imran gets the feel of power, he too may seek to curtail the authority of the army and may need to be elbowed out.
The rejection of ‘terrorist groups turned political parties’ by the local populace has compelled Imran to seek other individuals or parties for support to form the government. He is however assured of the backing of the deep state and its supported terrorist and religious groups and hence for the present he would neither be criticized, nor agitations launched against his government. For the army, while it did push Imran through as the next PM, the rejection of its supported terrorist and religious groups was a major setback and an indicator of national anger.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army