After tit-for-tat missile strikes, Iran and Pakistan de-escalate tension; yet, trust fades India vs Disinformation 21 Jan 2024
After tit-for-tat missile strikes, Iran and Pakistan de-escalate tension; yet, trust fades India vs Disinformation 21 Jan 2024
The missile and drone strike into Pakistan by Iran on 16th Jan, hitting camps of the Jaish al-Adl, a US and Iran designated terrorist group, led to a retaliatory strike by Pak, a day later. Pak employed aircraft, in addition to missiles and drones, to engage camps of Baloch militant groups, Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Baluchistan Liberation Front (BLF), based in Iran. Both sides targeted the Baloch, who are fighting for an independent state comprising of Baluchistan in Pakistan as also Baloch territory annexed by Iran in 1925. Those based in Pak target Iranian border guards, while those in Iran attack the Pak army.
Pakistan’s initial foreign ministry statement mentioned, ‘It is concerning that this illegal act (Iranian attack) has taken place despite existence of several channels of communication between Pakistan and Iran.’ The Iranian statement post the Pak attack, after condemning Islamabad, mentioned, ‘Islamic Republic of Iran adheres to the policy of good neighbourliness and brotherhood between the two nations and the two governments of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan.’ Foreign ministers of the two countries commenced discussion to diffuse the situation.
While tensions between the two may have reduced, forces would remain on alert. Both have been accusing the other of backing terrorist groups. Pak claims that two Baloch children were killed and three injured in the Iranian strike. The Iranians announced nine Baloch civilians killed in Pakistan’s strike and few more injured.
The Jaish al-Adl operates from Pakistan’s Sistan-Baluchistan region and comprises of about 500 fighters. It operates on both sides of the Iran-Pak border. It has support from local Baloch tribes and is backed by the ISI, possibly at the behest of the US and Saudi Arabia. The BLA and BLF have their bases in Iran and Afghanistan and target the Pak army. They have tacit support from the Iranian government, though Islamabad accuses New Delhi of funding them. All terrorist groups have claimed that none of them suffered any casualties in the attacks, though they were targets.
The Iranian foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, had met Pakistan’s caretaker PM, Anwaar Kakar, in Davos barely 30 minutes before the Iranian strike. It appears that Pakistan refused to respond to Tehran’s last-minute request to curb the Jaish al-Adl, claiming it does not support terrorism. The Iranian strike followed similar attacks launched on Iraq and Syria targeting a ‘supposed Israeli spy Headquarters’ and ISIL camps.
The attack by Tehran highlighted Pakistan’s frayed relations with all its major neighbours, India, Afghanistan and Iran. All have accused it of backing terrorist groups. While the Indo-Pak border witnesses a ceasefire, the Iranian and Afghan border will remain tense.
Pakistan was forced to react in a calibrated manner to the Iranian strike to stem growing domestic pressure on its armed forces. It simultaneously could not risk a regional conflict. Islamabad also needs Tehran’s support as it meets its oil needs by smuggling it from Iran. If Iran blocks movement of oil, Pak’s economic concerns will increase.
China, which has close ties with both, Pakistan and Iran, requested restraint. Its spokesperson stated, ‘We call on both sides to exercise restraint, avoid actions that would lead to an escalation of tension and work together to maintain peace and stability.’ It does appear that mediation by China led to defusing of the situation after the Pak strike.
The current fragile peace between Pakistan and Iran is because neither lost its own citizens. The Baloch, who were killed in both strikes, are not considered citizens of Iran nor Pakistan and hence are expendable. All targeted terrorist groups have sworn revenge. The fact that neither nation’s air defences detected the strikes implies that either they were staged or their current air defence systems are ineffective. Pakistan’s air defence had also failed to detect India’s Balakote strike.
Pakistan is the first nation to have struck Iran post the Hamas attack on Israel on 07 Oct. There is no doubt that Rawalpindi would have kept Washington in the loop on its decision, timing and targets. Hence, US would have monitored Pakistan’s strike and observed capabilities and gaps in Iran’s air defence. The US State Department spokesperson, Mathew Miller, bypassed the subject when questioned on Pakistan’s counter-strike by mentioning, ‘I do not have any private conversations to read out.’
Iran backing down also implies that it is hesitant to commence a conflict which could weaken its military power as tensions increase between the US and Israel and its proxies, Houthi’s, Hamas and Hezbollah. Ultimately for the west, Iran is the target. The Iranian strikes across the region also sent a message that despite sanctions and western pressure it possesses the capability to hit back and will not hesitate. Whether Iran hit its intended targets in Syria, Iraq and Pakistan is secondary, what is of prominence is conveying its intent.
It also sends a message that any strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities (it is close to developing nuclear weapons, with enrichment touching 80%) would be unacceptable and retaliation would follow. Israel, which has sworn to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons is involved in its own battle in Gaza and would hesitate to open a new front. The timing of the Hamas attack could also be linked to this factor.
Further, Israel and the US had recently targeted Iranian military personnel in Syria and Lebanon. These strikes also convey Iran’s intent to enter the Israel-Gaza conflict in case attacks against its personnel continue. The US is currently engaged in supporting Israel against Hamas as also keeping the Houthi’s under pressure, hence would hesitate to challenge Iran militarily.
The attack and deteriorating ties of Pakistan with all its major neighbours pushes its geo-economic policy into the dustbin. Iran by its attack also highlighted the failure of Pakistan’s famed spy agency, the ISI. The ISI failed to read Iran’s intent. Iranian accusations followed by the strike also exposes Pakistan as a global supporter of terrorism. The Iranian government has been facing domestic pressure as its people are being targeted internally and externally. The strike would reduce that to some extent.
India, which had launched two strikes into Pakistan backed Iran. The Indian spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal mentioned, ‘This is a matter between Iran and Pakistan. Insofar as India is concerned, we have an uncompromising position of zero tolerance towards terrorism. We understand actions that countries take in their self-defence.’ India conveyed that it backs military action against terrorist groups, no matter where they are based, including nuclear armed Pakistan. On Pakistan’s retaliation, India made no statement.
While Iran-Pak tensions may have reduced, they have not ended. Increased attacks by any terrorist group could re-ignite them, especially if the BLA and BLF target the CPEC and Chinese nationals. Simultaneously, the world has more proof of Pakistan backing terrorist groups. While Iran projected its offensive intent, it also displayed the weakness of its air defence. It is to overcome this shortcoming that it has launched ‘Defenders of Velayat Skies 1402,’ an air defence exercise involving all branches of its armed forces.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army