US-Iran talks the Excelsior 07 Jun 2026
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US-Iran talks the Excelsior 07 Jun 2026
The US seeks everything in a hurry, unwilling to understand that others do not follow the same timetable. This desperation of the US is justified because every administration looks at its own term in office, ignoring long-term interests. This is Trump’s last tenure and about 18 months have already elapsed. If any deal, currently under negotiations, is not inked as per their needs, it may never come through. The longer the negotiations, the less likely are chances of them being signed.
US-India trade talks have dragged for months, with the US Ambassador to India mentioning on multiple occasions that it is almost complete. On the contrary, India has displayed that it is not in a rush unless its core interests are protected. While Trump will not return, the same cannot be said of the Modi led Indian government.
Similar is the case with the US-Iran deal, post the ceasefire and inking of the MOU. Trump fails to realize that two months to reach an agreement with a country on its long-term nuclear program as also surrendering its stockpiles is a rather short period. The Iranian government needs to convince its people that it is the right step. The JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), also termed as the Iran Nuclear Deal, negotiated by the P5+1 (US, UK, France, China, Russia, plus Germany), from which Trump walked out in 2017, took five years before being approved.
Trump’s threats on attacks on Iran’s infrastructure have not worked. Iran has not been browbeaten in the conflict and is willing for dialogue only because it feels that released funds and oil exports would restructure its economy. It has suffered militarily but the regime remains intact, possibly more hardline. It is aware that war is not a solution and peace will provide it stability and enable it to handle Israel in the long-term.
Pressure has remained on Trump from Middle Eastern nations who fear their oil infrastructure would be targeted in case the US again attacks Iran. Even Europe has refused to back Trump. The US economy is on a downslide as also cost of continuing the conflict is becoming expensive for the US taxpayer. Trump has been forced to reign in Netanyahu and limit Israel’s attacks in Lebanon.
Iran’s concern with Lebanon is multi-fold. There are reports that Hezbollah has members of Iran’s IRGC embedded in it as also its degradation will weaken Iran’s hold on the region. Iran has thus placed ceasefire in Lebanon as a primary condition.
Neither side wants to display weakness. Trump mentioned last week, after a few days of attacks, that Iran has agreed to a meeting in Qatar. He even rushed his negotiators, Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, for talks with Iranian officials. The meeting was denied by Tehran which mentioned that its members were visiting Qatar only to discuss with Qatari negotiators. Witkoff and Kushner also met Qatari negotiators. Indirect talks, conducted by Qatari mediators, was claimed to be ‘positive.’
It has been two weeks since the MOU was signed and there is no forward movement. The major rider holding back progress is adherence to terms in the MOU. The MOU mentions negotiations will commence on release of Iran’s frozen funds as also lifting of sanctions on sale of its oil. Simultaneously, Iran must open the Straits of Hormuz, while US lifts its blockade. Peace should be restored in both, Iran and Lebanon.
The US now insists that funds would be released as talks progress, while Iran demands ships seek its permission before entering the straits. Simultaneously, it objects to vessels exploiting the route hugging the Omani coastline. Iran wants to ensure that its leverage over Hormuz remains, with or without the cooperation of Oman. This is its main hold on global oil and it would never let this go. War in Lebanon continues with Israel mentioning that it has informed the US of its intent to remain in parts of Lebanon. The US and Iran have traded fire with hopes of talks resuming.
In this confusion expecting a deal within two months is unlikely. Trump has his eyes on mid-term polls in the US due in November this year. He would also hope to stabilize the US economy by then and bring down inflation. If he maintains his hold on the US Congress, post the polls, there would be no further threat to his presidency till his tenure ends. By Nov even the future of Netanyahu would have been decided as Israel goes to polls in October. It is then that Trump may re-consider engaging Iran militarily. Iran is aware and is preparing for it, hence demanding release of its frozen funds on priority, without any pre-conditions, as mentioned by Vance recently. It may move from dollars to alternative currencies.
For a person like Trump, who has little patience and wants everything done by yesterday, this period of no progress for two weeks, post the signing of the MOU, is hurting. His rushing both, Witkoff and Kushner, to Qatar only on hearing that the Iranians would be coming indicates desperation and does not portray the US as a strong negotiator.
The most important gap yet to be bridged between both sides is trust. That is missing largely because neither is willing to be the first to adhere to the terms of the MOU. It is hoping that the other takes the first step. Iran’s wants release of funds, a ceasefire in Lebanon with Israeli withdrawal, while the US wants Hormuz open, without riders. While a hotline to manage military issues has been established, there is no mechanism to ensure that the terms agreed are simultaneously implemented.
Further, Trump is under internal pressure from his opponents claiming that he surrendered to Iran, and hence is slowing down implementing US conditions agreed to in the MOU. What is worse and damaging are his comments on social media and to the press, most of which are countered and denied by Iran.
Trump has limited time to leave behind his legacy with an agreement better than the JCPOA, while the Iranian regime has no restriction. It can drag talks for ages without being politically impacted. Qatar, which has a hold on both nations must now work to bridge differences and bring about trust between the sides. The world needs it.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army