Drone strike on Saudi facilities is a global message CENJOWS 24 Sep 19
https://cenjows.gov.in/article-detail?id=213
Drone strike on Saudi facilities is a global message CENJOWS 24 Sep 19
The attacks on Saudi oil facilities, destroying 5% of the global oil supply and reducing Saudi oil output by 5.7 Million barrels per day for at least a month, led to accusations and denials. The Saudi’s and the US were quick to blame Iran for being behind the attack, though Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility. Other powers warned them about jumping to conclusions without evidence.
Subsequent to the attack, Saudi officials displayed remnants of the missiles and drones used and claimed that a total of 25 drones and missiles were used in the attack. Clearly, a swarm of drones to sabotage Saudi missile defence system. The missiles are identical to the Quds-1 cruise missile revealed by the Houthi militia in a weapons display on July 7.
It is approximately 1,250 Kms from Yemen to the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia. Hence, the Saudi opinion is that it was unlikely that these drones were launched by Houthi forces. It is possible that they were launched by Iran-backed militia from southern Iraq. Iraq denied that these were launched from its territory. To add to confusion, Kuwait claims that a drone was spotted flying over its airspace on the night of the attack. Confusion remains on where they were launched from, Iraq or Iran, however, the blame for the attack is being pinned on Iran.
Iran, on the other hand, denied any role in the attack and sent a diplomatic note to the US, through the Swiss Embassy, on the same. It also warned, it would respond to any action taken against it. Trump tweeted, ‘I have just instructed the Secretary of the Treasury to substantially increase sanctions on the country of Iran.’ This implied that Trump is not contemplating any military action against Iran, though his administration accuses it of being behind the attack. As a precaution, the US has moved additional forces into the gulf.
The blame game may continue with no evidence to prove from where the missiles and drones were launched, but it displays a chilling reminder of the volatility of the region. With sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, most global oil flows from the Middle East. The loss of Saudi oil led to global prices surging by about 19%. This, coming at a time of global recession, only enhances global economic woes. The US may release oil from its own reserves in case of global shortfall, however this would not reduce the blame already being placed on them for scuttling the Iran Nuclear Deal.
China recently inked an agreement with Iran to invest $ 400 billion in the country. While complete details remain unclear, it is expected that the initial investments will be in the first five years, with $280 billion being invested in the petrochemicals sectors and $120 billion into transportation and manufacturing infrastructure. There is also a mention that as per the agreement, Chinese troops would guard Chinese investments in Iran. China will increase its oil imports, which will be available at discounted rates of 20-30%, and it will also help to develop Iran’s Chabahar port. China has continued its oil imports from Iran, despite US sanctions.
Russia, Britain and China warned the US and Saudi Arabia from jumping to hasty conclusions and blaming Iran without any proof. Russia remains a close Iranian ally and are both supporting the Syrian regime. Clearly, international players would ensure that there are no sudden military actions, which could throw the region into a crises and disrupt an already troubled world economy.
Iran has subtly indicated that it cannot be taken lightly and pushed beyond a point. It has displayed that its own military capabilities and those of the militia it supports could cause immense damage to global economy. Houthi rebels, after claiming a successful strike have declared ceasefire against Saudi Arabia. The reason given is that it is willing to discuss peace in Yemen.
The attack has also proved that there is no military solution to resolving the Iranian nuclear crises. Sanctions may have had some impact, not the level which the US has sought. Iran also upped the ante and stated that there are no plans for any talks with the US.
Iran has multiple cards up its sleeve. Its strategic location enables it to dominate the Hormuz straits, through which large quantum of oil supplies flow. Its capture of the British oil tanker in Jul for violating international maritime rules, in retaliation to its tanker being captured by the British administered territory of Gibraltar, is a case in point. It subsequently captured another vessel for ‘allegedly smuggling oil to UAE.’
Its downing of the US RQ 4A Global Hawk drone, one of the most modern drones in the world displayed Iran’s capable air defence, which appears based on the Russian S 300 design. Hence, the US may have to consider employing missiles, rather than air power, in case it decides to employ military force. In retaliation, most US military facilities are within Iran’s missile ranges. These could cause immense destruction, though it does not have the capability to target the US mainland.
With the US embroiled in Afghanistan, its own population would never support another conflict, especially one which could lead to loss of US lives. Many US public figures criticised their government for even considering support to Saudi Arabia militarily. They had been seeking sanctions against the country for its poor human rights record and the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi. In case Trump employs military force, it could devastate his options of re-election.
Iran’s capability to target oil facilities in the Middle East in retaliation against a strike could lead to international economic instability and would never be accepted globally. Israel, which is a vowed enemy of Iran is presently facing its own internal political uncertainty and hence has maintained silence.
Iran’s militia’s in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Palestine and Lebanon possess the capability to launch multiple assaults on US and its allies including Saudi Arabia, Israel and the UAE. Kuwaitis reporting a drone flying overhead indicates that this. The failure of Saudi’s US procured air defence equipment, including the Patriot missile system, indicated their vulnerability. Saudi Arabia by itself or along with the UAE could never consider a direct conflict with Iran. There are rumours that it asked Pakistan to deploy troops there, an action Pak hesitates to do.
India has stayed away from the entire episode. It has neither commented nor taken sides. However, it would have noticed the China-Iran agreement, signed at a time when Iran is under US pressure, where China even obtains a foothold in Chabahar. However, since India’s major dependency for oil is the Middle East, it is impacted. It may have to reconsider its dependence on oil as also its sources of supply.
There is no easy solution to the Iran crises. With the US unwilling to lift sanctions and Iran unwilling to talk without the lifting of sanctions, there is a stalemate. Other members of the Iran nuclear deal have failed to bypass US sanctions and procure Iranian oil. India also followed the US diktat. This has pushed Iran into a financial corner.
Iran needed to convey that its militias and itself have the capability to impact international economy. The message being sent is that ‘if you block our sales, we can impact global economy.’ The strike also proved the volatility of the Middle East. It is time nations ignore their inflexible stance and move forward to defuse the situation. Another strike could throw the world economy into shambles and ignite the entire region into flames.
About the Author
Maj Gen Harsha Kakkar
Retired Major General Indian Army